DOI: 10.1002/2013GL059160
论文题名: Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales
作者: Scaife A.A. ; Athanassiadou M. ; Andrews M. ; Arribas A. ; Baldwin M. ; Dunstone N. ; Knight J. ; Maclachlan C. ; Manzini E. ; Müller W.A. ; Pohlmann H. ; Smith D. ; Stockdale T. ; Williams A.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10287
EISSN: 1944-10018
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 5 起始页码: 1752
结束页码: 1758
语种: 英语
英文关键词: decadal forecast
; QBO
; seasonal forecast
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Oscillators (mechanical)
; Atmospheric process
; Climate forecasts
; Climate prediction
; Forecast systems
; Observational analysis
; QBO
; Quasi-biennial oscillation
; Seasonal forecasts
; Forecasting
; climate modeling
; climate oscillation
; climate prediction
; correlation
; gravity wave
; parameterization
; quasi-biennial oscillation
; seasonal variation
; teleconnection
; timescale
英文摘要: The predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is examined in initialized climate forecasts extending out to lead times of years. We use initialized retrospective predictions made with coupled ocean-atmosphere climate models that have an internally generated QBO. We demonstrate predictability of the QBO extending more than 3 years into the future, well beyond timescales normally associated with internal atmospheric processes. Correlation scores with observational analyses exceed 0.7 at a lead time of 12 months. We also examine the variation of predictability with season and QBO phase and find that skill is lowest in winter. An assessment of perfect predictability suggests that higher skill may be achievable through improved initialization and climate modeling of the QBO, although this may depend on the realism of gravity wave source parameterizations in the models. Finally, we show that skilful prediction of the QBO itself does not guarantee predictability of the extratropical winter teleconnection that is important for surface winter climate prediction. Key Points The QBO is skilfully predicted in seasonal-decadal forecast systems Further improvements in predictions of the QBO are possible The QBO winter surface teleconnection is reproduced with mixed success ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84895632115&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL059160&partnerID=40&md5=ca93703b6c6564a3692c2d6b3dd71993
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7551
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Scaife A.A.,Athanassiadou M.,Andrews M.,et al. Predictability of the quasi-biennial oscillation and its northern winter teleconnection on seasonal to decadal timescales[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(5).