DOI: 10.5194/tc-11-331-2017
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85011295034
论文题名: Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades
作者: Sproles E ; A ; , Roth T ; R ; , Nolin A ; W
刊名: Cryosphere
ISSN: 19940416
出版年: 2017
卷: 11, 期: 1 起始页码: 331
结束页码: 341
语种: 英语
英文关键词: assessment method
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate effect
; glacial hydrology
; meltwater
; probability
; snow water equivalent
; snowpack
; spatial analysis
; water resource
; water storage
; watershed
; Cascade Range
; McKenzie Basin
; Oregon
; Pacific Northwest
; United States
; Willamette River
英文摘要: In the Pacific Northwest, USA, the extraordinarily low snowpacks of winters 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 stressed regional water resources and the social-environmental system. We introduce two new approaches to better understand how seasonal snow water storage during these two winters would compare to snow water storage under warmer climate conditions. The first approach calculates a spatial-probabilistic metric representing the likelihood that the snow water storage of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 would occur under +2°C perturbed climate conditions. We computed snow water storage (basin-wide and across elevations) and the ratio of snow water equivalent to cumulative precipitation (across elevations) for the McKenzie River basin (3041 km2), a major tributary to the Willamette River in Oregon, USA. We applied these computations to calculate the occurrence probability for similarly low snow water storage under climate warming. Results suggest that, relative to +2°C conditions, basin-wide snow water storage during winter 2013-2014 would be above average, while that of winter 2014-2015 would be far below average. Snow water storage on 1 April corresponds to a 42 % (2013-2014) and 92 % (2014-2015) probability of being met or exceeded in any given year. The second approach introduces the concept of snow analogs to improve the anticipatory capacity of climate change impacts on snow-derived water resources. The use of a spatial-probabilistic approach and snow analogs provide new methods of assessing basin-wide snow water storage in a non-stationary climate and are readily applicable in other snow-dominated watersheds. © Author(s) 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75606
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Centro de Estudios Avanzados en Zonas Áridas, Universidad de La Serena, Raul Bitran 1305, La Serena, Chile; College of College of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, CEOAS Admin Bldg, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Sproles E,A,, Roth T,et al. Future snow? A spatial-probabilistic assessment of the extraordinarily low snowpacks of 2014 and 2015 in the Oregon Cascades[J]. Cryosphere,2017-01-01,11(1)