globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2017MS000962
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041607208
论文题名:
The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model
作者: Ricciuto D; , Sargsyan K; , Thornton P
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2018
卷: 10, 期:2
起始页码: 297
结束页码: 319
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Biogeochemistry ; Carbon ; Forestry ; Iterative methods ; Sensitivity analysis ; Bayesian compressive sensing ; Dimensionality reduction ; Global sensitivity analysis ; Land surface modeling ; Mean annual temperatures ; Parameter sensitivities ; Parametric uncertainties ; Uncertainty quantifications ; Barium compounds
英文摘要: We conduct a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), land model (ELM) to calculate the sensitivity of five key carbon cycle outputs to 68 model parameters. This GSA is conducted by first constructing a Polynomial Chaos (PC) surrogate via new Weighted Iterative Bayesian Compressive Sensing (WIBCS) algorithm for adaptive basis growth leading to a sparse, high-dimensional PC surrogate with 3,000 model evaluations. The PC surrogate allows efficient extraction of GSA information leading to further dimensionality reduction. The GSA is performed at 96 FLUXNET sites covering multiple plant functional types (PFTs) and climate conditions. About 20 of the model parameters are identified as sensitive with the rest being relatively insensitive across all outputs and PFTs. These sensitivities are dependent on PFT, and are relatively consistent among sites within the same PFT. The five model outputs have a majority of their highly sensitive parameters in common. A common subset of sensitive parameters is also shared among PFTs, but some parameters are specific to certain types (e.g., deciduous phenology). The relative importance of these parameters shifts significantly among PFTs and with climatic variables such as mean annual temperature. © 2017. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75654
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Sandia National Laboratories, Livermore, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Ricciuto D,, Sargsyan K,, Thornton P. The Impact of Parametric Uncertainties on Biogeochemistry in the E3SM Land Model[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2018-01-01,10(2)
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