DOI: 10.1002/2014GL059274
论文题名: The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate
作者: Chylek P. ; Klett J.D. ; Lesins G. ; Dubey M.K. ; Hengartner N.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10306
EISSN: 1944-10037
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 5 起始页码: 1689
结束页码: 1697
语种: 英语
英文关键词: AMO
; Arctic
; global temperature
; regression analysis
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric radiation
; Climate models
; Climatology
; Global warming
; Greenhouse gases
; Linear regression
; Regression analysis
; AMO
; Anthropogenic aerosols
; Arctic
; Atlantic multidecadal oscillations
; Global temperatures
; Global-mean temperature
; Multiple linear regression analysis
; Near surface air temperature
; Computer simulation
; aerosol property
; air temperature
; anthropogenic effect
; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
; climate modeling
; cooling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; global warming
; greenhouse gas
; marine atmosphere
; radiative forcing
; volcanic aerosol
英文摘要: A multiple linear regression analysis of global annual mean near-surface air temperature (1900-2012) using the known radiative forcing and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation index as explanatory variables account for 89% of the observed temperature variance. When the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index is added to the set of explanatory variables, the fraction of accounted for temperature variance increases to 94%. The anthropogenic effects account for about two thirds of the post-1975 global warming with one third being due to the positive phase of the AMO. In comparison, the Coupled Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble mean accounts for 87% of the observed global mean temperature variance. Some of the CMIP5 models mimic the AMO-like oscillation by a strong aerosol effect. These models simulate the twentieth century AMO-like cycle with correct timing in each individual simulation. An inverse structural analysis suggests that these models generally overestimate the greenhouse gases-induced warming, which is then compensated by an overestimate of anthropogenic aerosol cooling. Key Points The AMO is a more effective predictor than ENSO for global mean temperature AMO-related processes contribute about one third to the post-1975 global warming Radiative forcing due to volcanic aerosol is alredy encoded in the AMO ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84895154309&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL059274&partnerID=40&md5=74895fbde6a1adf6ed34c8a4b6306350
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7570
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Space and Remote Sensing, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos NM, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chylek P.,Klett J.D.,Lesins G.,et al. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation as a dominant factor of oceanic influence on climate[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(5).