DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000721
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85012931515
论文题名: Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 2. Transient dynamics
作者: Ahmed K ; F ; , Wang G ; , You L ; , Anyah R ; , Zhang C ; , Burnicki A
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2017
卷: 9, 期: 1 起始页码: 377
结束页码: 388
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Crops
; Dynamics
; Economics
; Electric power system interconnection
; Expansion
; Land use
; Rain
; Adaptation strategies
; Agricultural sector
; Climate variability
; Equilibrium approaches
; Future projections
; Land-use change
; Socio-economic model
; Transient dynamics
; Climate change
; agricultural land
; climate change
; climate effect
; crop yield
; environmental modeling
; future prospect
; land cover
; nature-society relations
; regional climate
; socioeconomic conditions
; Benin [West Africa]
; Burkina Faso
; Ghana
; Senegal
; Togo
英文摘要: Understanding climate-cropland interactions and their impact on future projections in West Africa motivated the recent development of a modeling framework that asynchronously couples four models for regional climate, crop growth, socioeconomics, and cropland allocation. This modeling framework can be applied to a future time slice using an equilibrium approach or to a continuous projection using a transient approach. This paper compares the differences between these two approaches, examines the transient dynamics of the system, and evaluates its impact on future projections. During the course of projection up to mid-century, food demand is projected to increase monotonically, while the projected crop yield shows a high degree of temporal dynamics due to strong climate variability. Such temporal dynamics are not accounted for by the equilibrium approach. As a result, the transient approach projects a generally faster future expansion of cropland, with the largest differences over Benin, Burkina Faso, Ghana, Senegal, and Togo. Despite the relative large differences between the two approaches in projecting land cover changes associated with cropland expansion, the projected future climate changes are fairly similar. While the additional cropland expansion in the transient approach favors a wet signal, both the transient and equilibrium approaches project a future decrease of rainfall in the western part of West Africa and an increase in the eastern part. For quantifying climate changes, the equilibrium application of the modeling framework is likely to be sufficient; for assessing climate impact on agricultural sectors and devising mitigation and adaptation strategies, transient dynamics is important. © 2017. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75818
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, and Center for Environmental Science and Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States; Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; Department of Geography, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Ahmed K,F,, Wang G,et al. Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 2. Transient dynamics[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(1)