globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000712
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85013096155
论文题名:
Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 1. Model description and an equilibrium application over West Africa
作者: Wang G; , Ahmed K; F; , You L; , Yu M; , Pal J; , Ji Z
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2017
卷: 9, 期:1
起始页码: 354
结束页码: 376
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture ; Climate models ; Crops ; Decision making ; Economics ; Expansion ; Greenhouse gases ; International trade ; Land use ; Agricultural expansion ; Agricultural land use ; Crop yield ; Global climate model ; Human decision making ; Regional climate changes ; Socio-economic development ; Socio-economic factor ; Climate change ; agricultural economics ; agricultural land ; biophysics ; climate change ; crop yield ; global climate ; greenhouse gas ; land use change ; nature-society relations ; regional climate ; socioeconomic conditions ; West Africa
英文摘要: Agricultural land use alters regional climate through modifying the surface mass, energy, and momentum fluxes; climate influences agricultural land use through their impact on crop yields. These interactions are not well understood and have not been adequately considered in climate projections. This study tackles the critical linkages within the coupled natural-human system of West Africa in a changing climate based on an equilibrium application of a modeling framework that asynchronously couples models of regional climate, crop yield, multimarket agricultural economics, and cropland expansion. Using this regional modeling framework driven with two global climate models, we assess the contributions of land use change (LUC) and greenhouse gas (GHGs) concentration changes to regional climate changes and assess the contribution of climate change and socioeconomic factors to agricultural land use changes. For future cropland expansion in West Africa, our results suggest that socioeconomic development would be the dominant driver in the east (where current cropland coverage is already high) and climate changes would be the primary driver in the west (where future yield drop is severe). For future climate, it is found that agricultural expansion would cause a dry signal in the west and a wet signal in the east downwind, with an east-west contrast similar to the GHG-induced changes. Over a substantial portion of West Africa, the strength of the LUC-induced climate signals is comparable to the GHG-induced changes. Uncertainties originating from the driving global models are small; human decision making related to land use and international trade is a major source of uncertainty. © 2017. The Authors.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75825
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, United States; Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture/Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China; International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, United States; Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China; Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Loyola Marymount University, Los Angeles, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wang G,, Ahmed K,F,et al. Projecting regional climate and cropland changes using a linked biogeophysical-socioeconomic modeling framework: 1. Model description and an equilibrium application over West Africa[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2017-01-01,9(1)
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