DOI: 10.1002/2016MS000677
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84988835517
论文题名: On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era
作者: Dee S ; G ; , Steiger N ; J ; , Emile-Geay J ; , Hakim G ; J
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2016
卷: 8, 期: 3 起始页码: 1164
结束页码: 1179
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Earth atmosphere
; Errors
; Forestry
; Trees (mathematics)
; Climate reconstruction
; Data assimilation
; General circulation model
; Paleoclimates
; System modeling
; Climate models
; atmospheric general circulation model
; climate conditions
; coral record
; data assimilation
; ice core
; oxygen isotope
; paleoclimate
; proxy climate record
; reconstruction
; tree ring
; Anthozoa
英文摘要: Paleoclimate data assimilation has recently emerged as a promising technique to estimate past climate states. Here we test two of the underlying assumptions of paleoclimate data assimilation as applied so far: (1) climate proxies can be modeled as linear, univariate recorders of temperature and (2) structural errors in GCMs can be neglected. To investigate these two points and related uncertainties, we perform a series of synthetic, paleoclimate data assimilation-based reconstructions where “pseudo” proxies are generated with physically based proxy system models (PSMs) for coral δ18O, tree ring width, and ice core δ18O using two isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models. For (1), we find that linear-univariate models efficiently capture the GCM's climate in ice cores and corals and do not lead to large losses in reconstruction skill. However, this does not hold for tree ring width, especially in regions where the trees' response is dominated by moisture supply; we quantify how the breakdown of this assumption lowers reconstruction skill for each proxy class. For (2), we find that climate model biases can introduce errors that greatly reduce reconstruction skill, with or without perfect proxy system models. We explore possible strategies for mitigating structural modeling errors in GCMs and discuss implications for paleoclimate reanalyses. © 2016. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75876
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences, Brown University, Providence, RI, United States; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dee S,G,, Steiger N,et al. On the utility of proxy system models for estimating climate states over the common era[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2016-01-01,8(3)