DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000474
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84959502774
论文题名: Effects of vertical wind shear on the predictability of tropical cyclones: Practical versus intrinsic limit
作者: Tao D ; , Zhang F
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期: 4 起始页码: 1534
结束页码: 1553
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Hurricanes
; Moisture
; Random processes
; Sensitivity analysis
; Statistics
; Storms
; Tropics
; Vortex flow
; Atmospheric predictability
; Moisture conditions
; Random initial conditions
; Random perturbations
; Rapid intensification
; Standard deviation
; Tropical cyclone
; Vertical wind shear
; Shear flow
; atmospheric convection
; ensemble forecasting
; moisture content
; perturbation
; prediction
; sensitivity analysis
; tropical cyclone
; uncertainty analysis
; wind shear
英文摘要: The effects of environmental shear on the dynamics and predictability of tropical cyclones (TCs) are further explored through a series of cloud-permitting ensemble sensitivity experiments with small, random initial condition perturbations on the low-level moisture fields. As an expansion of earlier studies, it is found that larger the shear magnitude, less predictable the TCs, especially the onset time of the rapid intensification (RI), until the shear is too large for the TC formation. Systematic differences amongst the ensemble members begin to arise right after the initial burst of moist convection associated with the incipient vortex. This randomness inherent in moist convection first changes the TC vortex structure subtly, but the location and strength of subsequent moist convection are greatly influential to the precession and alignment of the TC vortex as well as the RI onset time. Additional ensemble sensitivity experiments with different magnitude random perturbations to the mean environmental shear (6 m s-1) show that when the standard deviation of the random shear perturbations among different ensemble members is as small as 0.5 m s-1, the difference in shear magnitude overwhelms the randomness of moist convection in influencing the TC development and rapid intensification (indicative of limited practical predictability). However, for the ensemble with standard deviation of 0.1 m s-1 in random shear perturbations, the uncertainty in TC onset timing is comparable to the ensemble that is perturbed only by small random moisture conditions in the initial moisture field (indicative of the limit in intrinsic predictability). © 2015. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75943
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University, University ParkPA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tao D,, Zhang F. Effects of vertical wind shear on the predictability of tropical cyclones: Practical versus intrinsic limit[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(4)