DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000402
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944877973
论文题名: Modeling irrigation-based climate change adaptation in agriculture: Model development and evaluation in Northeast China
作者: Okada M ; , Iizumi T ; , Sakurai G ; , Hanasaki N ; , Sakai T ; , Okamoto K ; , Yokozawa M
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期: 3 起始页码: 1409
结束页码: 1424
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture
; Bayesian networks
; Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Hydrology
; Inference engines
; Irrigation
; Land use
; Rivers
; Soil moisture
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Climate change adaptation
; Climate change impact
; Crop evapotranspiration
; Crop production
; Crop yield
; Global water resources
; Irrigation management
; Surface soil moisture
; Climate change
; climate change
; crop production
; evapotranspiration
; irrigation system
; rainfed agriculture
; river discharge
; soil moisture
; soybean
; water availability
; water resource
; watershed
; yield
; China
; Songhua River
; Glycine max
英文摘要: Replacing a rainfed cropping system with an irrigated one is widely assumed to be an effective measure for climate change adaptation. However, many agricultural impact studies have not necessarily accounted for the space-time variations in the water availability under changing climate and land use. Moreover, many hydrologic and agricultural assessments of climate change impacts are not fully integrated. To overcome this shortcoming, a tool that can simultaneously simulate the dynamic interactions between crop production and water resources in a watershed is essential. Here we propose the regional production and circulation coupled model (CROVER) by embedding the PRYSBI-2 (Process-based Regional Yield Simulator with Bayesian Inference version 2) large-area crop model into the global water resources model (called H08), and apply this model to the Songhua River watershed in Northeast China. The evaluation reveals that the model's performance in capturing the major characteristics of historical change in surface soil moisture, river discharge, actual crop evapotranspiration, and soybean yield relative to the reference data during the interval 1979-2010 is satisfactory accurate. The simulation experiments using the model demonstrated that subregional irrigation management, such as designating the area to which irrigation is primarily applied, has measurable influences on the regional crop production in a drought year. This finding suggests that reassessing climate change risk in agriculture using this type of modeling is crucial not to overestimate potential of irrigation-based adaptation. Key Points: This study developed a coupled crop production and river circulation model The model can accurately capture the major features of hydrology and crop yield The model is useful in assessing climate change adaptation based on irrigation © 2015. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/75983
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan; Graduate School of Engineering, Shizuoka University, Hamamatsu, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Okada M,, Iizumi T,, Sakurai G,et al. Modeling irrigation-based climate change adaptation in agriculture: Model development and evaluation in Northeast China[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(3)