DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000306
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84930677124
论文题名: The response of US summer rainfall to quadrupled CO2 climate change in conventional and superparameterized versions of the NCAR community atmosphere model
作者: Kooperman G ; J ; , Pritchard M ; S ; , Somerville R ; C ; J
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 6, 期: 3 起始页码: 859
结束页码: 882
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Boundary conditions
; Cams
; Climate models
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Sea ice
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Uncertainty analysis
; Community atmosphere model
; Extreme precipitation
; Mesoscale Convective System
; Rainfall intensity
; Superparameterization
; Climate change
; atmospheric convection
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; climate modeling
; global climate
; mesoscale meteorology
; parameterization
; precipitation intensity
; regional climate
; sea ice
; sea surface temperature
; summer
; United States
英文摘要: Observations and regional climate modeling (RCM) studies demonstrate that global climate models (GCMs) are unreliable for predicting changes in extreme precipitation. Yet RCM climate change simulations are subject to boundary conditions provided by GCMs and do not interact with large-scale dynamical feedbacks that may be critical to the overall regional response. Limitations of both global and regional modeling approaches contribute significant uncertainty to future rainfall projections. Progress requires a modeling framework capable of capturing the observed regional-scale variability of rainfall intensity without sacrificing planetary scales. Here the United States summer rainfall response to quadrupled CO2 climate change is investigated using conventional (CAM) and superparameterized (SPCAM) versions of the NCAR Community Atmosphere Model. The superparameterization approach, in which cloud-resolving model arrays are embedded in GCM grid columns, improves rainfall statistics and convective variability in global simulations. A set of 5 year time-slice simulations, with prescribed sea surface temperature and sea ice boundary conditions harvested from preindustrial and abrupt four times CO2 coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM/CAM) simulations, are compared for CAM and SPCAM. The two models produce very different changes in mean precipitation patterns, which develop from differences in large-scale circulation anomalies associated with the planetary-scale response to warming. CAM shows a small decrease in overall rainfall intensity, with an increased contribution from the weaker parameterized convection and a decrease from large-scale precipitation. SPCAM has the opposite response, a significant shift in rainfall occurrence toward higher precipitation rates including more intense propagating Central United States mesoscale convective systems in a four times CO2 climate. Key Points Large-scale dynamics are critical to regional rainfall climate change responses Superparameterization captures expected increases in rain and storm intensity Extreme rain may be decoupled from key climate change drivers in standard GCMs © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76008
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Scripps Institution of OceanographyUniversity of California, San Diego, California, United States; Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, California, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kooperman G,J,, Pritchard M,et al. The response of US summer rainfall to quadrupled CO2 climate change in conventional and superparameterized versions of the NCAR community atmosphere model[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,6(3)