DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000397
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027945086
论文题名: An empirical model relating U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment
作者: Allen J ; T ; , Tippett M ; K ; , Sobel A ; H
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 226
结束页码: 243
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climatology
; Potential energy
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Climate variability
; Climatological annual cycle
; Convective available potential energies
; Convective precipitation
; Environmental variables
; Lower frequencies
; Specific humidity
; United States
; Climate models
; climate variation
; climatology
; hail
; humidity
; meteorology
; numerical model
; precipitation assessment
; spatial distribution
; thunderstorm
; timescale
; Rocky Mountains
英文摘要: An empirical model relating monthly hail occurrence to the large-scale environment has been developed and tested for the United States (U.S.). Monthly hail occurrence for each 1°×1° grid box is defined as the number of hail events that occur there during a month; a hail event consists of a 3 h period with at least one report of hail larger than 1 in. The model is derived using climatological annual cycle data only. Environmental variables are taken from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR; 1979-2012). The model includes four environmental variables convective precipitation, convective available potential energy, storm relative helicity, and mean surface to 90 hPa specific humidity. The model differs in its choice of variables and their relative weighting from existing severe weather indices. The model realistically matches the annual cycle of hail occurrence both regionally and for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The modeled spatial distribution is also consistent with the observed hail climatology. However, the westward shift of maximum hail frequency during the summer months is delayed in the model relative to observations, and the model has a lower frequency of hail just east of the Rocky Mountains compared to observations. Year-to-year variability provides an independent test of the model. On monthly and annual time scales, the model reproduces observed hail frequencies. Overall model trends are small compared to observed changes, suggesting that further analysis is necessary to differentiate between physical and nonphysical trends. The empirical hail model provides a new tool for exploration of connections between large-scale climate and severe weather. © 2015. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76012
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: IRI, Earth Institute, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Change Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Allen J,T,, Tippett M,et al. An empirical model relating U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(1)