DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000327
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84924765717
论文题名: Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones
作者: Vincent E ; M ; , Emanuel K ; A ; , Lengaigne M ; , Vialard J ; , Madec G
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 6, 期: 3 起始页码: 680
结束页码: 699
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climate change
; Climatology
; Feedback
; Hurricanes
; Storms
; Tropics
; Atmospheric environment
; Dynamical downscaling
; ENSO
; Interannual variability
; Operational forecasts
; Subsurface temperature
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Upper ocean
; Oceanography
; air-sea interaction
; annual variation
; climate change
; climate modeling
; downscaling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; stratification
; subsurface flow
; tropical cyclone
; Indian Ocean
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Climate modes, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), influence Tropical Cyclones (TCs) interannual activity through their effect on large-scale atmospheric environment. These climate modes also induce interannual variations of subsurface oceanic stratification, which may also influence TCs. Changes in oceanic stratification indeed modulate the amplitude of TCs-induced cooling, and hence the negative feedback of air-sea interactions on the TC intensity. Here we use a dynamical downscaling approach that couples an axisymmetric TC model to a simple ocean model to quantify this interannual oceanic control on TC activity. We perform twin experiments with contrasted oceanic stratifications representative of interannual variability in each TC-prone region. While subsurface oceanic variations do not significantly affect the number of moderate (Category 3 or less) TCs, they do induce a 30% change of Category 5 TC-days globally, and a 70% change for TCs exceeding 85 m s-1. TCs in the western Pacific and the southwestern Indian Ocean are most sensitive to oceanic interannual variability (with a ∼10 m s-1 modulation of the intensity of strongest storms at low latitude), owing to large upper ocean variations in response to ENSO. These results imply that a representation of ocean stratification variability should benefit operational forecasts of intense TCs and the understanding of their climatic variability. Key Points Downscaling method is used to test ocean variability influence on Hurricanes Ocean subsurface temperature significantly influences intense Hurricane frequency © 2014. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76030
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Program in Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States; Sorbonne Universités (UPMCUniv Paris 06)-CNRS-IRD-MNHNLOCEAN LaboratoryIPSL, Paris, France; Indo-French Cell for Water SciencesIISc-NIO-IITM-IRD Joint International LaboratoryNIO, Dona Paula, Goa, India
Recommended Citation:
Vincent E,M,, Emanuel K,et al. Influence of upper ocean stratification interannual variability on tropical cyclones[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,6(3)