DOI: 10.1002/2015MS000432
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027925328
论文题名: Quantifying the sensitivity of maximum, limiting, and potential tropical cyclone intensity to SST: Observations versus the FSU/COAPS global climate model
作者: Strazzo S ; E ; , Elsner J ; B ; , Larow T ; E
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期: 2 起始页码: 586
结束页码: 599
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; NASA
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Atmospheric conditions
; Global climate model
; Physically based
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Statistical relationship
; Time-periods
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone intensity
; Hurricanes
; climate modeling
; comparative study
; estimation method
; global climate
; hurricane
; sea surface temperature
; sensitivity analysis
; statistical analysis
英文摘要: Previous research quantified the sensitivity of limiting intensity to SST for observed tropical cyclones (TCs) and for TCs generated by two global climate models (GCMs). On average, a 1°C increase in sea surface temperature (SST) is associated with a 7.9 m s-1 increase in the statistical upper limit of observed intensity. Conversely, a 1°C increase in SST does not significantly affect the limiting intensity of GCM-generated TCs. The study presented here builds on previous research in two ways: (1) A comparison is made between the statistically defined limiting intensity and the physically defined potential intensity, and (2) a test is performed on the ability of a 0.94°resolution GCM to reproduce the observed statistical relationship between potential intensity and SST. Data from NASA's Modern Era Reanalysis are used to approximate the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST for the 1982-2008 time period. Results indicate that the sensitivity of potential intensity to SST is not statistically different from the sensitivity of observed maximum or limiting intensity to SST. This result links the statistically defined sensitivity to the physically based theory of hurricanes. Potential intensity is also estimated from the FSU/COAPS GCM. Although the FSU/COAPS model does not capture the observed sensitivity of TC maximum or limiting intensity to SST, the model reproduces the observed sensitivity of potential intensity to SST. The model generates suitable atmospheric conditions for the development of strong TCs, however strong TCs do not develop, possibly as a result of insufficient resolution. Key Points: Link statistical TC limiting intensity to theoretical TC potential intensity Quantify differences in observed/simulated sensitivities of TC intensity to SST Understand why GCMs miss the sensitivity of hurricane limiting intensity to SST © 2015. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76045
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Geography, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States; Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Sciences, Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, United States
Recommended Citation:
Strazzo S,E,, Elsner J,et al. Quantifying the sensitivity of maximum, limiting, and potential tropical cyclone intensity to SST: Observations versus the FSU/COAPS global climate model[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(2)