DOI: 10.1002/2014MS000403
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928814435
论文题名: Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2
作者: Nazarenko L ; , Schmidt G ; A ; , Miller R ; L ; , Tausnev N ; , Kelley M ; , Ruedy R ; , Russell G ; L ; , Aleinov I ; , Bauer M ; , Bauer S ; , Bleck R ; , Canuto V ; , Cheng Y ; , Clune T ; L ; , Del Genio A ; D ; , Faluvegi G ; , Hansen J ; E ; , Healy R ; J ; , Kiang N ; Y ; , Koch D ; , Lacis A ; A ; , Legrande A ; N ; , Lerner J ; , Lo K ; K ; , Menon S ; , Oinas V ; , Perlwitz J ; , Puma M ; J ; , Rind D ; , Romanou A ; , Sato M ; , Shindell D ; T ; , Sun S ; , Tsigaridis K ; , Unger N ; , Voulgarakis A ; , Yao M ; -S ; , Zhang J
刊名: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
ISSN: 19422466
出版年: 2015
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 244
结束页码: 267
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Atmospheric chemistry
; Atmospheric composition
; Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Methane
; NASA
; Recovery
; Sea ice
; Aerosol indirect effect
; Coupled general circulation models
; Deep-water formation
; future scenarios
; Global mean warming
; Historical simulation
; Ocean general circulation models
; Surface air temperatures
; Climate models
; aerosol
; anthropogenic source
; atmospheric pollution
; climate change
; climate modeling
; emission
; general circulation model
; methane
; numerical model
; temperature effect
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
英文摘要: We examine the anthropogenically forced climate response for the 21st century representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios and their extensions for the period 2101-2500. The experiments were performed with ModelE2, a new version of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) coupled general circulation model that includes three different versions for the atmospheric composition components: a noninteractive version (NINT) with prescribed composition and a tuned aerosol indirect effect (AIE), the TCAD version with fully interactive aerosols, whole-atmosphere chemistry, and the tuned AIE, and the TCADI version which further includes a parameterized first indirect aerosol effect on clouds. Each atmospheric version is coupled to two different ocean general circulation models: the Russell ocean model (GISS-E2-R) and HYCOM (GISS-E2-H). By 2100, global mean warming in the RCP scenarios ranges from 1.0 to 4.5°C relative to 1850-1860 mean temperature in the historical simulations. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the surface warming in all simulations stays below a 2°C threshold at the end of the 21st century. For RCP8.5, the range is 3.5-4.5°C at 2100. Decadally averaged sea ice area changes are highly correlated to global mean surface air temperature anomalies and show steep declines in both hemispheres, with a larger sensitivity during winter months. By the year 2500, there are complete recoveries of the globally averaged surface air temperature for all versions of the GISS climate model in the low-forcing scenario RCP2.6. TCADI simulations show enhanced warming due to greater sensitivity to CO2 , aerosol effects, and greater methane feedbacks, and recovery is much slower in RCP2.6 than with the NINT and TCAD versions. All coupled models have decreases in the Atlantic overturning stream function by 2100. In RCP2.6, there is a complete recovery of the Atlantic overturning stream function by the year 2500 while with scenario RCP8.5, the E2-R climate model produces a complete shutdown of deep water formation in the North Atlantic. © 2015. The Authors. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76063
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Trinnovim LLC, New York, NY, United States; Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, United States; Now at Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, United States; Now at Department of Energy, Washington, DC, United States; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; Yale University, New Haven, CT, United States; Department of Physics, Imperial College, London, United Kingdom; University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Nazarenko L,, Schmidt G,A,et al. Future climate change under RCP emission scenarios with GISS ModelE2[J]. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems,2015-01-01,7(1)