globalchange  > 影响、适应和脆弱性
DOI: 10.1002/wcc.380
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84957724963
论文题名:
Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events
作者: Stott P; A; , Christidis N; , Otto F; E; L; , Sun Y; , Vanderlinden J; -P; , van Oldenborgh G; J; , Vautard R; , von Storch H; , Walton P; , Yiou P; , Zwiers F; W
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期:1
起始页码: 23
结束页码: 41
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Decision making ; Meteorology ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Probability ; Uncertainty analysis ; Anthropogenic climate changes ; Continuing development ; Extreme precipitation events ; Geographical coverage ; Natural climate variabilities ; Scientific uncertainty ; Seasonal temperature ; Stakeholder groups ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate variation ; decision making ; extreme event ; stakeholder
英文摘要: Extreme weather and climate-related events occur in a particular place, by definition, infrequently. It is therefore challenging to detect systematic changes in their occurrence given the relative shortness of observational records. However, there is a clear interest from outside the climate science community in the extent to which recent damaging extreme events can be linked to human-induced climate change or natural climate variability. Event attribution studies seek to determine to what extent anthropogenic climate change has altered the probability or magnitude of particular events. They have shown clear evidence for human influence having increased the probability of many extremely warm seasonal temperatures and reduced the probability of extremely cold seasonal temperatures in many parts of the world. The evidence for human influence on the probability of extreme precipitation events, droughts, and storms is more mixed. Although the science of event attribution has developed rapidly in recent years, geographical coverage of events remains patchy and based on the interests and capabilities of individual research groups. The development of operational event attribution would allow a more timely and methodical production of attribution assessments than currently obtained on an ad hoc basis. For event attribution assessments to be most useful, remaining scientific uncertainties need to be robustly assessed and the results clearly communicated. This requires the continuing development of methodologies to assess the reliability of event attribution results and further work to understand the potential utility of event attribution for stakeholder groups and decision makers. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76247
Appears in Collections:影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre for the Environment, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Adminstration, Beijing, China; Observatoire de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, University of Versailles, Versailles, France; Weather and Climate Modeling, Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut, De Bilt, Netherlands; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, Centre National de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), Paris, France; Institut für Küstenforschung, Geesthacht, Germany; Extrèmes Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environment, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, Victoria, Canada

Recommended Citation:
Stott P,A,, Christidis N,et al. Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(1)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Stott P]'s Articles
[A]'s Articles
[, Christidis N]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Stott P]'s Articles
[A]'s Articles
[, Christidis N]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Stott P]‘s Articles
[A]‘s Articles
[, Christidis N]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.