DOI: 10.1002/wcc.371
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84951739653
论文题名: Tropical cyclones and climate change
作者: Walsh K ; J ; E ; , Mcbride J ; L ; , Klotzbach P ; J ; , Balachandran S ; , Camargo S ; J ; , Holland G ; , Knutson T ; R ; , Kossin J ; P ; , Lee T ; -cheung ; , Sobel A ; , Sugi M
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2016
卷: 7, 期: 1 起始页码: 65
结束页码: 89
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate models
; Floods
; Hurricanes
; Sea level
; Storms
; Global climate changes
; Large scale conditions
; Potential risks
; Quantitative assessments
; Recent researches
; Sea level rise
; Tracking algorithm
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; sea level change
; storm surge
; tropical cyclone
英文摘要: Recent research has strengthened the understanding of the links between climate and tropical cyclones (TCs) on various timescales. Geological records of past climates have shown century-long variations in TC numbers. While no significant trends have been identified in the Atlantic since the late 19th century, significant observed trends in TC numbers and intensities have occurred in this basin over the past few decades, and trends in other basins are increasingly being identified. However, understanding of the causes of these trends is incomplete, and confidence in these trends continues to be hampered by a lack of consistent observations in some basins. A theoretical basis for maximum TC intensity appears now to be well established, but a climate theory of TC formation remains elusive. Climate models mostly continue to predict future decreases in global TC numbers, projected increases in the intensities of the strongest storms and increased rainfall rates. Sea level rise will likely contribute toward increased storm surge risk. Against the background of global climate change and sea level rise, it is important to carry out quantitative assessments on the potential risk of TC-induced storm surge and flooding to densely populated cities and river deltas. Several climate models are now able to generate a good distribution of both TC numbers and intensities in the current climate. Inconsistent TC projection results emerge from modeling studies due to different downscaling methodologies and warming scenarios, inconsistencies in projected changes of large-scale conditions, and differences in model physics and tracking algorithms. WIREs Clim Change 2016, 7:65-89. doi: 10.1002/wcc.371 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76248
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia; Centre for Climate Research Singapore (CCRS), Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore, Singapore; Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; Cyclone Warning Research Centre, Regional Meteorological Centre, Chennai, India; Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, United States; National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Centers for Environmental Information, Asheville, NC, United States; Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong; Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Walsh K,J,E,et al. Tropical cyclones and climate change[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2016-01-01,7(1)