| DOI: | 10.1002/2013GL058653
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| 论文题名: | Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty |
| 作者: | Hannart A.; Ribes A.; Naveau P.
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| 刊名: | Geophysical Research Letters
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| ISSN: | 0094-10370
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| EISSN: | 1944-10101
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| 出版年: | 2014
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| 卷: | 41, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 1261
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| 结束页码: | 1268
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | detection and attribution
; linear regression
; optimal fingerprinting
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| Scopus关键词: | Equipment testing
; Linear regression
; Regression analysis
; Detection and attributions
; Internal variability
; Linear regression methods
; Observational errors
; Optimal fingerprinting
; Sources of uncertainty
; Statistical inference
; Total least squares
; Optimization
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; geodesy
; linearity
; numerical model
; paradigm shift
; performance assessment
; regression analysis
; uncertainty analysis
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| 英文摘要: | Detection and attribution studies routinely use linear regression methods referred to as optimal fingerprinting. Within the latter methodological paradigm, it is usually recognized that multiple sources of uncertainty affect both the observations and the simulated climate responses used as regressors. These include for instance internal variability, climate model error, or observational error. When all errors share the same covariance, the statistical inference is usually performed with the so-called total least squares procedure, but to date no inference procedure is readily available in the climate literature to treat the general case where this assumption does not hold. Here we address this deficiency. After a brief outlook on the error-in-variable models literature, we describe an inference procedure based on likelihood maximization, inspired by a recent article dealing with a similar situation in geodesy. We evaluate the performance of our approach via an idealized test bed. We find the procedure to outperform existing procedures when the latter wrongly neglect some sources of uncertainty. Key Points Introducing an inference procedure for EIV OF models Clarifying the situation with respect to OF models and procedures Enhancing the benefit of the procedure ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. |
| URL: | https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84894275735&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058653&partnerID=40&md5=cc50e5576f26375a290bb5075e123229
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| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7634
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: | IFAECI, CNRS/CONICET/UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Hannart A.,Ribes A.,Naveau P.. Optimal fingerprinting under multiple sources of uncertainty[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(4).
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