| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.124
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-79961218522
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| 论文题名: | Exploring the feasibility of low stabilization targets |
| 作者: | Knopf B; , Luderer G; , Edenhofer O
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2011
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| 卷: | 2, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 617
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| 结束页码: | 626
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Carbon
; Stabilization
; Uncertainty analysis
; Base-line assumptions
; Climate change mitigation
; Integrated assessment models
; Low emission scenarios
; Low-carbon technologies
; Resource availability
; Technology improvement
; Technology scenarios
; Climate change
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| 英文摘要: | Climate change mitigation scenarios provide an integrated perspective on the technologies and policies that are required to achieve various mitigation targets as well as the related costs. With the threat of severe adverse impacts from climate change becoming more and more apparent and in view of the pledge by policy-makers to meet stringent stabilization targets, further exploration of low emission scenarios has become increasingly relevant. Although much progress has been made in recent years to provide the basis for a solid assessment of different stabilization targets and the related economic, environmental, and social consequences, a more structured approach within a more realistic framework is required. First, uncertainties in baseline assumptions that are independent of climate policy need to be taken into account. These uncertainties reflect the incomplete knowledge concerning drivers of real-world developments, e.g. assumptions on technology improvements or resource availability. In addition, it is necessary to analyze so-called second-best worlds in which constraints on the deployment of low-carbon technologies or imperfect climate policy regimes render the mitigation effort more difficult. The current challenge for Integrated Assessment Modeling is thus to explore feasibility and limitations of mitigation strategies along three directions: (1) ambitious mitigation targets, (2) explicit treatment of uncertainties in baseline assumptions, and (3) second-best policy or technology scenarios. With this article, we propose future research foci and priorities in the run-up to the IPCC's Fifth Assessment Report. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76464
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Research Domain III: Sustainable Solutions, Potsdam, Germany
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Knopf B,, Luderer G,, Edenhofer O. Exploring the feasibility of low stabilization targets[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(4)
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