DOI: 10.1002/wcc.135
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-80052238599
论文题名: Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments: Ozone depletion and the West Antarctic ice sheet
作者: O'Reilly J ; , Brysse K ; , Oppenheimer M ; , Oreskes N
刊名: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
ISSN: 17577780
出版年: 2011
卷: 2, 期: 5 起始页码: 728
结束页码: 743
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; Glaciers
; Global warming
; Ozone
; Ozone layer
; Uncertainty analysis
; Environmental policy
; Innovative approaches
; Parameter uncertainty
; Science - policy interfaces
; Scientific information
; Scientific uncertainty
; Stratospheric ozone depletion
; West antarctic ice sheets
; Environmental protection
英文摘要: Large-scale assessments have become an important vehicle for organizing, interpreting, and presenting scientific information relevant to environmental policy. At the same time, identifying and evaluating scientific uncertainty with respect to the very questions these assessments were designed to address has become more difficult, as ever more complex problems involving greater portions of the Earth system and longer timescales have emerged at the science-policy interface. In this article, we explore expert judgments about uncertainty in two recent cases: the assessment of stratospheric ozone depletion, and the assessment of the response of the West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS) to global warming. These assessments were fairly adept at characterizing one type of uncertainty in models (parameter uncertainty), but faced much greater difficulty in dealing with structural model uncertainty, sometimes entirely avoiding grappling with it. In the absence of viable models, innovative approaches were developed in the ozone case for consolidating information about highly uncertain future outcomes, whereas little such progress has been made thus far in the case of WAIS. Both cases illustrate the problem of expert disagreement, suggesting that future assessments need to develop improved approaches to representing internal conflicts of judgment, in order to produce a more complete evaluation of uncertainty. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76490
Appears in Collections: 影响、适应和脆弱性 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of Sociology, College of St. Benedict and St. John's University, San Diego, CA, United States; Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of History and Program in Science Studies, University of California, San Diego, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
O'Reilly J,, Brysse K,, Oppenheimer M,et al. Characterizing uncertainty in expert assessments: Ozone depletion and the West Antarctic ice sheet[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2011-01-01,2(5)