| DOI: | 10.1002/wcc.60
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-79956278218
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| 论文题名: | Constructing climate knowledge with computer models |
| 作者: | Müller P
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| 刊名: | Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
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| ISSN: | 17577780
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| 出版年: | 2010
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| 卷: | 1, 期:4 | | 起始页码: | 565
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| 结束页码: | 580
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Philosophical aspects
; Uncertainty analysis
; Climate scientists
; Climate system
; Computer codes
; Computer models
; Mathematical equations
; Model calibration
; Model uncertainties
; Policy decisions
; Climate models
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| 英文摘要: | Computer models are powerful tools that allow us to analyze problems in unprecedented detail and to conduct experiments impossible with the real system. Reliance on computer models in science and policy decisions has been challenged by philosophers of science on methodological and epistemological grounds. This challenge is examined for the case of climate models by reviewing what they are and what climate scientists do with them, followed by an analysis of how they can be used to construct new trustworthy knowledge. A climatemodel is an executable computer code that solves a set of mathematical equations assumed to represent the climate system. Climatemodelers use thesemodels to simulate present and past climates and forecast likely and plausible future evolutions. Model uncertainties and model calibration are identified as the two major concerns. Climate models of different complexity address different question. Their interplay helps to weed out model errors, identify robust features, understand the climate system, and build confidence in the models, but is no guard against flaws in the underlying physics. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/76508
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| Appears in Collections: | 影响、适应和脆弱性
气候变化与战略
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作者单位: | Department of Oceanography, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Müller P. Constructing climate knowledge with computer models[J]. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,2010-01-01,1(4)
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