DOI: 10.1002/2013GL058755
论文题名: Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models
作者: Tietsche S. ; Day J.J. ; Guemas V. ; Hurlin W.J. ; Keeley S.P.E. ; Matei D. ; Msadek R. ; Collins M. ; Hawkins E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10413
EISSN: 1944-10144
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 3 起始页码: 1035
结束页码: 1043
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; global climate models
; sea ice
; seasonal to decadal predictability
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Errors
; Forecasting
; Arctic
; Ensemble prediction
; Global climate model
; Marginal Ice Zone
; Prediction errors
; Sea ice concentration
; Sea-ice thickness
; seasonal to decadal predictability
; Sea ice
; climate modeling
; error analysis
; global climate
; magnitude
; prediction
; sea ice
; temporal variation
; Arctic Ocean
英文摘要: We establish the first intermodel comparison of seasonal to interannual predictability of present-day Arctic climate by performing coordinated sets of idealized ensemble predictions with four state-of-the-art global climate models. For Arctic sea ice extent and volume, there is potential predictive skill for lead times of up to 3 years, and potential prediction errors have similar growth rates and magnitudes across the models. Spatial patterns of potential prediction errors differ substantially between the models, but some features are robust. Sea ice concentration errors are largest in the marginal ice zone, and in winter they are almost zero away from the ice edge. Sea ice thickness errors are amplified along the coasts of the Arctic Ocean, an effect that is dominated by sea ice advection. These results give an upper bound on the ability of current global climate models to predict important aspects of Arctic climate. Key Points Arctic sea ice is potentially predictable for up to three years in current GCMs Potential prediction errors are amplified at the coasts of the Arctic ocean Advective processes are very important for spatial error patterns ©2014. The Authors. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84893858975&doi=10.1002%2f2013GL058755&partnerID=40&md5=37ea48105ab557fb521f1e6a4a6c501e
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7677
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: NCAS-Climate, Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Tietsche S.,Day J.J.,Guemas V.,et al. Seasonal to interannual Arctic sea ice predictability in current global climate models[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(3).