DOI: 10.1002/gbc.20028
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84881094643
论文题名: Atmospheric CO2 response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability
作者: Frölicher T ; L ; , Joos F ; , Raible C ; C ; , Sarmiento J ; L
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2013
卷: 27, 期: 1 起始页码: 239
结束页码: 251
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle
; modeling
; volcanoes
Scopus关键词: Anthropogenic carbon
; Carbon cycles
; Climate system model
; Ensemble simulation
; Explosive volcanism
; Internal variability
; Multi-decadal time scale
; Seasonal variability
; Atmospheric pressure
; Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Computer simulation
; Earth (planet)
; Models
; Submarine geophysics
; Volcanoes
; Climate models
; carbon cycle
; carbon sink
; climate modeling
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; La Nina
; numerical model
; seasonal variation
; seasonality
; volcanic eruption
; volcanism
; Bali
; Central Luzon
; Chiapas
; El Chichon
; Indonesia
; Lesser Sunda Islands
; Luzon
; Mexico [North America]
; Mount Agung
; Mount Pinatubo
; Philippines
; Sunda Isles
; Zambales
英文摘要: Tropical explosive volcanism is one of the most important natural factors that significantly impact the climate system and the carbon cycle on annual to multi-decadal time scales. The three largest explosive eruptions in the last 50 years - Agung, El Chichõn, and Pinatubo - occurred in spring/summer in conjunction with El Niño events and left distinct negative signals in the observational temperature and CO2 records. However, confounding factors such as seasonal variability and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may obscure the forcing-response relationship. We determine for the first time the extent to which initial conditions, i.e., season and phase of the ENSO, and internal variability influence the coupled climate and carbon cycle response to volcanic forcing and how this affects estimates of the terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks. Ensemble simulations with the Earth System Model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon) predict that the atmospheric CO2 response is ∼60% larger when a volcanic eruption occurs during El Niño and in winter than during La Niña conditions. Our simulations suggest that the Pinatubo eruption contributed 11 ± 6% to the 25 Pg terrestrial carbon sink inferred over the decade 1990-1999 and -2 ± 1% to the 22 Pg oceanic carbon sink. In contrast to recent claims, trends in the airborne fraction of anthropogenic carbon cannot be detected when accounting for the decadal-scale influence of explosive volcanism and related uncertainties. Our results highlight the importance of considering the role of natural variability in the carbon cycle for interpretation of observations and for data-model intercomparison. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77620
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland; Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Sayre Hall, 300 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ 08544, United States; Oeschger Centre for Climates Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Frölicher T,L,, Joos F,et al. Atmospheric CO2 response to volcanic eruptions: The role of ENSO, season, and variability[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2013-01-01,27(1)