DOI: 10.1002/gbc.20055
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84879546028
论文题名: Future arctic ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms
作者: Vancoppenolle M ; , Bopp L ; , Madec G ; , Dunne J ; , Ilyina T ; , Halloran P ; R ; , Steiner N
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2013
卷: 27, 期: 3 起始页码: 605
结束页码: 619
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Arctic
; nitrate
; primary production
; sea ice
Scopus关键词: Arctic
; Climate change scenarios
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Earth system model
; Model uncertainties
; Nutrient limitations
; Primary production
; Primary productivity
; Nitrates
; Oceanography
; Sea ice
; Uncertainty analysis
; Computer simulation
; climate change
; nitrate
; numerical model
; nutrient limitation
; oligotrophic environment
; primary production
; sea ice
; shoaling wave
; Arctic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean
; Atlantic Ocean (North)
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: Net Arctic Ocean primary production (PP) is expected to increase over this century, due to less perennial sea ice and more available light, but could decrease depending on changes in nitrate (NO3) supply. Here Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 simulations performed with 11 Earth System Models are analyzed in terms of PP, surface NO3, and sea ice coverage over 1900-2100. Whereas the mean model simulates reasonably well Arctic-integrated PP (511 TgC/yr, 1998-2005) and projects a mild 58 TgC/yr increase by 2080-2099 for the strongest climate change scenario, models do not agree on the sign of future PP change. However, similar mechanisms operate in all models. The perennial ice loss-driven increase in PP is in most models NO3-limited. The Arctic surface NO3 is decreasing over the 21st century (-2.3 ± 1 mmol/m3), associated with shoaling mixed layer and with decreasing NO3 in the nearby North Atlantic and Pacific waters. However, the intermodel spread in the degree of NO3 limitation is initially high, resulting from >1000 year spin-up simulations. This initial NO3 spread, combined with the trend, causes a large variation in the timing of oligotrophy onset - which directly controls the sign of future PP change. Virtually all models agree in the open ocean zones on more spatially integrated PP and less PP per unit area. The source of model uncertainty is located in the sea ice zone, where a subtle balance between light and nutrient limitations determines the PP change. Hence, it is argued that reducing uncertainty on present Arctic NO3 in the sea ice zone would render Arctic PP projections much more consistent. ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77638
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: LOCEAN-IPSL, CNRS, Paris, France; LSCE-IPSL, CNRS, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; NOC, Southampton, United Kingdom; GFDL, Princeton, NJ, United States; MPI, Hamburg, Germany; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; School of Geography, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom; Fisheries and Oceans, Sidney, BC, Canada; CCCMA, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Vancoppenolle M,, Bopp L,, Madec G,et al. Future arctic ocean primary productivity from CMIP5 simulations: Uncertain outcome, but consistent mechanisms[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2013-01-01,27(3)