DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005598
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85034818905
论文题名: Future Riverine Inorganic Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea From Sweden: An Ensemble Approach to Assessing Climate Change Effects
作者: Teutschbein C ; , Sponseller R ; A ; , Grabs T ; , Blackburn M ; , Boyer E ; W ; , Hytteborn J ; K ; , Bishop K
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2017
卷: 31, 期: 11 起始页码: 1674
结束页码: 1701
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Baltic Sea
; climate change
; inorganic nitrogen
; loads
; streamflow
; Sweden
Scopus关键词: air temperature
; air-water interaction
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate modeling
; dissolved inorganic nitrogen
; eutrophication
; freshwater environment
; growing season
; inorganic nitrogen
; land-sea interaction
; marine environment
; seasonal variation
; spatial distribution
; streamflow
; water chemistry
; Atlantic Ocean
; Baltic Sea
; Sweden
英文摘要: The dramatic increase of bioreactive nitrogen entering the Earth's ecosystems continues to attract growing attention. Increasingly large quantities of inorganic nitrogen are flushed from land to water, accelerating freshwater, and marine eutrophication. Multiple, interacting, and potentially countervailing drivers control the future hydrologic export of inorganic nitrogen. In this paper, we attempt to resolve these land-water interactions across boreal/hemiboreal Sweden in the face of a changing climate with help of a versatile modeling framework to maximize the information value of existing measurement time series. We combined 6,962 spatially distributed water chemistry observations spread over 31 years with daily streamflow and air temperature records. An ensemble of climate model projections, hydrological simulations, and several parameter parsimonious regression models was employed to project future riverine inorganic nitrogen dynamics across Sweden. The median predicted increase in total inorganic nitrogen export from Sweden (2061–2090) due to climate change was 14% (interquartile range 0–29%), based on the ensemble of 7,500 different predictions for each study site. The overall export as well as the seasonal pattern of inorganic nitrogen loads in a future climate are mostly influenced by longer growing seasons and more winter flow, which offset the expected decline in spring flood. The predicted increase in inorganic nitrogen loading due to climate change means that the political efforts for reducing anthropogenic nitrogen inputs need to be increased if ambitions for reducing the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea are to be achieved. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77691
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Department of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeå University, Umeå, Sweden; Department of Forest Ecology and Management, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Umeå, Sweden; Department of Ecosystem Science and Management, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, United States; Department of Aquatic Sciences and Assessment, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Uppsala, Sweden
Recommended Citation:
Teutschbein C,, Sponseller R,A,et al. Future Riverine Inorganic Nitrogen Load to the Baltic Sea From Sweden: An Ensemble Approach to Assessing Climate Change Effects[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2017-01-01,31(11)