globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005601
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85022227224
论文题名:
Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment
作者: Fetzel T; , Havlik P; , Herrero M; , Kaplan J; O; , Kastner T; , Kroisleitner C; , Rolinski S; , Searchinger T; , Van Bodegom P; M; , Wirsenius S; , Erb K; -H
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2017
卷: 31, 期:7
起始页码: 1089
结束页码: 1102
语种: 英语
英文关键词: global livestock systems ; grazing area ; grazing intensity ; livestock grazing ; net primary production ; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: boreal forest ; data set ; ecological impact ; feeding ; global perspective ; grazing ; livestock ; net primary production ; quantitative analysis ; sensitivity analysis ; spatial distribution ; sustainability ; uncertainty analysis ; Amazon Basin ; India ; Western Europe ; Animalia
英文摘要: Livestock systems play a key role in global sustainability challenges like food security and climate change, yet many unknowns and large uncertainties prevail. We present a systematic, spatially explicit assessment of uncertainties related to grazing intensity (GI), a key metric for assessing ecological impacts of grazing, by combining existing data sets on (a) grazing feed intake, (b) the spatial distribution of livestock, (c) the extent of grazing land, and (d) its net primary productivity (NPP). An analysis of the resulting 96 maps implies that on average 15% of the grazing land NPP is consumed by livestock. GI is low in most of the world's grazing lands, but hotspots of very high GI prevail in 1% of the total grazing area. The agreement between GI maps is good on one fifth of the world's grazing area, while on the remainder, it is low to very low. Largest uncertainties are found in global drylands and where grazing land bears trees (e.g., the Amazon basin or the Taiga belt). In some regions like India or Western Europe, massive uncertainties even result in GI > 100% estimates. Our sensitivity analysis indicates that the input data for NPP, animal distribution, and grazing area contribute about equally to the total variability in GI maps, while grazing feed intake is a less critical variable. We argue that a general improvement in quality of the available global level data sets is a precondition for improving the understanding of the role of livestock systems in the context of global environmental change or food security. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77720
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Institute of Social Ecology Vienna, Alpen-Adria Universitaet Klagenfurt, Vienna, Austria; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Ecosystem Services and Management, Laxenburg, Austria; Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, St Lucia, QLD, Australia; ARVE Research Group, Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, University of Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Department of Geography and Regional Science, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Princeton Environmental Institute and the Woodrow Wilson School, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Institute of Environmental Sciences, Leiden University, Leiden, Netherlands; Department of Energy and Environment, Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg, Sweden

Recommended Citation:
Fetzel T,, Havlik P,, Herrero M,et al. Quantification of uncertainties in global grazing systems assessment[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2017-01-01,31(7)
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