DOI: 10.1002/2017GB005690
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027348684
论文题名: Effects of parameter indeterminacy in pelagic biogeochemical modules of Earth System Models on projections into a warming future: The scale of the problem
作者: Löptien U ; , Dietze H
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2017
卷: 31, 期: 7 起始页码: 1155
结束页码: 1172
语种: 英语
英文关键词: biogeochemical ocean modeling
; Earth System Model
; future projections
; model verification and validation
; parameter estimation
; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: biogeochemical cycle
; environmental conditions
; future prospect
; general circulation model
; limiting factor
; model validation
; nutrient dynamics
; parameter estimation
; pelagic environment
; phytoplankton
; three-dimensional modeling
; uncertainty analysis
; warming
英文摘要: Numerical Earth System Models are generic tools used to extrapolate present climate conditions into a warming future and to explore geoengineering options. Most of the current-generation models feature a simple pelagic biogeochemical model component that is embedded into a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model. The dynamics of these biogeochemical model components is essentially controlled by so-called model parameters most of which are poorly known. Here we explore the feasibility to estimate these parameters in a full-fledged three-dimensional Earth System Model by minimizing the misfit to noisy observations. The focus is on parameter identifiability. Based on earlier studies, we illustrate problems in determining a unique estimate of those parameters that prescribe the limiting effect of nutrient- and light-depleted conditions on carbon assimilation by autotrophic phytoplankton. Our results showcase that for typical models and evaluation metrics no meaningful “best” unique parameter set exists. We find very different parameter sets which are, on the one hand, equally consistent with our (synthetic) historical observations while, on the other hand, they propose strikingly differing projections into a warming climate. ©2017. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77721
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Kiel, Germany; Institute of Geosciences, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Kiel, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Löptien U,, Dietze H. Effects of parameter indeterminacy in pelagic biogeochemical modules of Earth System Models on projections into a warming future: The scale of the problem[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2017-01-01,31(7)