DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005426
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984691757
论文题名: Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure
作者: Lovenduski N ; S ; , McKinley G ; A ; , Fay A ; R ; , Lindsay K ; , Long M ; C
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2016
卷: 30, 期: 9 起始页码: 1276
结束页码: 1287
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon
; climate
; model
; ocean
; projection
; uncertainty
Scopus关键词: air-sea interaction
; biogeochemical cycle
; carbon dioxide
; carbon emission
; carbon flux
; climate variation
; uncertainty analysis
; California Current
; Pacific Ocean
英文摘要: We quantify and isolate the sources of projection uncertainty in annual-mean sea-air CO2 flux over the period 2006–2080 on global and regional scales using output from two sets of ensembles with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and models participating in the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). For annual-mean, globally-integrated sea-air CO2 flux, uncertainty grows with prediction lead time and is primarily attributed to uncertainty in emission scenario. At the regional scale of the California Current System, we observe relatively high uncertainty that is nearly constant for all prediction lead times, and is dominated by internal climate variability and model structure, respectively in the CESM and CMIP5 model suites. Analysis of CO2 flux projections over 17 biogeographical biomes reveals a spatially heterogenous pattern of projection uncertainty. On the biome scale, uncertainty is driven by a combination of internal climate variability and model structure, with emission scenario emerging as the dominant source for long projection lead times in both modeling suites. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77815
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Lovenduski N,S,, McKinley G,et al. Partitioning uncertainty in ocean carbon uptake projections: Internal variability, emission scenario, and model structure[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2016-01-01,30(9)