globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1002/2016GB005405
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978289190
论文题名:
Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009
作者: McGuire A; D; , Koven C; , Lawrence D; M; , Clein J; S; , Xia J; , Beer C; , Burke E; , Chen G; , Chen X; , Delire C; , Jafarov E; , MacDougall A; H; , Marchenko S; , Nicolsky D; , Peng S; , Rinke A; , Saito K; , Zhang W; , Alkama R; , Bohn T; J; , Ciais P; , Decharme B; , Ekici A; , Gouttevin I; , Hajima T; , Hayes D; J; , Ji D; , Krinner G; , Lettenmaier D; P; , Luo Y; , Miller P; A; , Moore J; C; , Romanovsky V; , Schädel C; , Schaefer K; , Schuur E; A; G; , Smith B; , Sueyoshi T; , Zhuang Q
刊名: Global Biogeochemical Cycles
ISSN: 8866236
出版年: 2016
卷: 30, 期:7
起始页码: 1015
结束页码: 1037
语种: 英语
英文关键词: carbon cycle ; climate change ; permafrost ; permafrost carbon feedback ; sensitivity ; soil carbon
Scopus关键词: air temperature ; carbon cycle ; climate change ; climate feedback ; ecosystem modeling ; global perspective ; greenhouse gas ; Northern Hemisphere ; permafrost ; primary production ; sensitivity analysis ; simulation ; soil carbon ; vegetation dynamics
英文摘要: A significant portion of the large amount of carbon (C) currently stored in soils of the permafrost region in the Northern Hemisphere has the potential to be emitted as the greenhouse gases CO2 and CH4 under a warmer climate. In this study we evaluated the variability in the sensitivity of permafrost and C in recent decades among land surface model simulations over the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009. The 15 model simulations all predict a loss of near-surface permafrost (within 3 m) area over the region, but there are large differences in the magnitude of the simulated rates of loss among the models (0.2 to 58.8 × 103 km2 yr−1). Sensitivity simulations indicated that changes in air temperature largely explained changes in permafrost area, although interactions among changes in other environmental variables also played a role. All of the models indicate that both vegetation and soil C storage together have increased by 156 to 954 Tg C yr−1 between 1960 and 2009 over the permafrost region even though model analyses indicate that warming alone would decrease soil C storage. Increases in gross primary production (GPP) largely explain the simulated increases in vegetation and soil C. The sensitivity of GPP to increases in atmospheric CO2 was the dominant cause of increases in GPP across the models, but comparison of simulated GPP trends across the 1982–2009 period with that of a global GPP data set indicates that all of the models overestimate the trend in GPP. Disturbance also appears to be an important factor affecting C storage, as models that consider disturbance had lower increases in C storage than models that did not consider disturbance. To improve the modeling of C in the permafrost region, there is the need for the modeling community to standardize structural representation of permafrost and carbon dynamics among models that are used to evaluate the permafrost C feedback and for the modeling and observational communities to jointly develop data sets and methodologies to more effectively benchmark models. ©2016. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/77834
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: U.S. Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Tiantong National Station of Forest Ecosystem, School of Ecological and Environmental Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China; Department of Environmental Science and Analytical Chemistry (ACES) and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; GAME, Unité Mixte de Recherche CNRS/Meteo-France (UMR 3589), Toulouse CEDEX, France; Institute of Arctic Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Geophysical Institute, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR 8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France; Universite–Grenoble Alpes/CNRS, Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement (LGGE), UMR 5183, BP53, Grenoble, France; Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany; State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China; Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan; Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Lund, Sweden; School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, United States; Irstea, UR HHLY, 5 rue de la Doua, CS 70077, Villeurbanne CEDEX, France; Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, United States; Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Center for Ecosystem Science and Society and Department of Biological Sciences, Northern Arizona University, Flagstaff, AZ, United States; National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, United States; Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States

Recommended Citation:
McGuire A,D,, Koven C,et al. Variability in the sensitivity among model simulations of permafrost and carbon dynamics in the permafrost region between 1960 and 2009[J]. Global Biogeochemical Cycles,2016-01-01,30(7)
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