DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-5317-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84919430941
论文题名: Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle in CMIP5 projections
作者: Dirmeyer P ; A ; , Fang G ; , Wang Z ; , Yadav P ; , Milton A
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期: 12 起始页码: 5317
结束页码: 5329
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Computer simulation
; Crops
; Drought
; Floods
; Runoff
; Soil moisture
; 20th century
; Global climate changes
; Interannual variability
; Moisture variability
; River basins
; River flooding
; Water shortages
; Climate change
; climate change
; drought
; flooding
; global climate
; hydrological cycle
; hydrometeorology
; river discharge
; soil moisture
; spatial distribution
; surface water
英文摘要: Results from 10 global climate change models are synthesized to investigate changes in extremes, defined as wettest and driest deciles in precipitation, soil moisture and runoff based on each model's historical 20th century simulated climatology. Under a moderate warming scenario, regional increases in drought frequency are found with little increase in floods. For more severe warming, both drought and flood become much more prevalent, with nearly the entire globe significantly affected. Soil moisture changes tend toward drying, while runoff trends toward flood. To determine how different sectors of society dependent on various components of the surface water cycle may be affected, changes in monthly means and interannual variability are compared to data sets of crop distribution and river basin boundaries. For precipitation, changes in interannual variability can be important even when there is little change in the long-term mean. Over 20% of the globe is projected to experience a combination of reduced precipitation and increased variability under severe warming. There are large differences in the vulnerability of different types of crops, depending on their spatial distributions. Increases in soil moisture variability are again found to be a threat even where soil moisture is not projected to decrease. The combination of increased variability and greater annual discharge over many basins portends increased risk of river flooding, although a number of basins are projected to suffer surface water shortages. © 2014 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78030
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: George Mason University, MS 6C5, 4400 University Drive, Fairfax, VA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Dirmeyer P,A,, Fang G,et al. Climate change and sectors of the surface water cycle in CMIP5 projections[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(12)