DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060241
论文题名: Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes: Observations and predictability
作者: Xavier P. ; Rahmat R. ; Cheong W.K. ; Wallace E.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10548
EISSN: 1944-10279
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 12 起始页码: 4406
结束页码: 4412
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Madden-Julian oscillation
; Rainfall extremes
; Southeast Asia
; atmospheric convection
; climate prediction
; forecasting method
; Madden-Julian oscillation
; precipitation intensity
; raingauge
; TRMM
; Southeast Asia
英文摘要: The influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) on the rainfall distribution of Southeast Asia is studied using TRMM satellite-derived rainfall and rain gauge data. It is shown that convectively active (suppressed) phases of MJO can increase (decrease) the probability of extreme rain events over the land regions by about 30-50% (20-25%) during November-March season. The influence of MJO on localized rainfall extremes are also observed both in rainfall intensity and duration. The Met Office Global Seasonal forecasting system seasonal forecasting system is shown to reproduce the MJO influence on rainfall distribution well despite the model biases over land. Skills scores for forecasting 90th percentile extreme rainfall shows significant skills for convective phases. This study demonstrates the feasibility of deriving probabilistic forecasts of extreme rainfall at medium range. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84903331819&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060241&partnerID=40&md5=7629ab1a1a6576c5f1afd169d2d5206b
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7812
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Singapore, Singapore
Recommended Citation:
Xavier P.,Rahmat R.,Cheong W.K.,et al. Influence of Madden-Julian Oscillation on Southeast Asia rainfall extremes: Observations and predictability[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(12).