globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-18-1539-2014
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84899639408
论文题名:
Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River basin using hierarchical Bayesian modeling
作者: Chen X; , Hao Z; , Devineni N; , Lall U
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2014
卷: 18, 期:4
起始页码: 1539
结束页码: 1548
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Bayesian networks ; Normal distribution ; Rain ; Risk management ; Uncertainty analysis ; Weather forecasting ; Coefficient of efficiencies ; Hierarchical Bayesian modeling ; Multi-level structures ; Multi-variate normal distributions ; Posterior distributions ; Receiver operating characteristics ; Regression coefficient ; Water risk managements ; Stream flow ; adaptive management ; Bayesian analysis ; climate variation ; correlation ; forecasting method ; numerical model ; rainfall ; risk assessment ; streamflow ; uncertainty analysis ; China ; Huai River
英文摘要: A Hierarchal Bayesian model is presented for one season-ahead forecasts of summer rainfall and streamflow using exogenous climate variables for east central China. The model provides estimates of the posterior forecasted probability distribution for 12 rainfall and 2 streamflow stations considering parameter uncertainty, and cross-site correlation. The model has a multi-level structure with regression coefficients modeled from a common multi-variate normal distribution resulting in partial pooling of information across multiple stations and better representation of parameter and posterior distribution uncertainty. Covariance structure of the residuals across stations is explicitly modeled. Model performance is tested under leave-10-out cross-validation. Frequentist and Bayesian performance metrics used include receiver operating characteristic, reduction of error, coefficient of efficiency, rank probability skill scores, and coverage by posterior credible intervals. The ability of the model to reliably forecast season-ahead regional summer rainfall and streamflow offers potential for developing adaptive water risk management strategies. © Author(s) 2014.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78262
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China; Department of Civil Engineering, City University of New York (City College), New York, NY 10031, United States; NOAA-Cooperative Remote Sensing Science and Technology Center, City University of New York (City College), New York, NY 10031, United States; Columbia Water Center, Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Engineering, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China

Recommended Citation:
Chen X,, Hao Z,, Devineni N,et al. Climate information based streamflow and rainfall forecasts for Huai River basin using hierarchical Bayesian modeling[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014-01-01,18(4)
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