globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-4735-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84949032404
论文题名:
Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia-implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships
作者: Verdon-Kidd D; C; , Kiem A; S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期:12
起始页码: 4735
结束页码: 4746
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Climatology ; Water supply ; Annual maximum rainfalls ; Anthropogenic climate changes ; Australian rainfall and runoffs ; Climate variability ; Climate variability and change ; Daily rainfall records ; Engineers Australia ; Hydroclimatic variability ; Rain ; annual cycle ; climate change ; frequency analysis ; hydrometeorology ; precipitation intensity ; rainfall ; rainfall-runoff modeling ; time series ; water management ; water supply ; Australia ; Brisbane ; Melbourne ; New South Wales ; Queensland ; Sydney [New South Wales] ; Victoria [Australia]
英文摘要: Rainfall intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships are commonly required for the design and planning of water supply and management systems around the world. Currently, IFD information is based on the "stationary climate assumption" that weather at any point in time will vary randomly and that the underlying climate statistics (including both averages and extremes) will remain constant irrespective of the period of record. However, the validity of this assumption has been questioned over the last 15 years, particularly in Australia, following an improved understanding of the significant impact of climate variability and change occurring on interannual to multidecadal timescales. This paper provides evidence of regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall time series (between 1913-2010) using 96 daily rainfall stations and 66 sub-daily rainfall stations across Australia. Furthermore, the effect of these regime shifts on the resulting IFD estimates are explored for three long-term (1913-2010) sub-daily rainfall records (Brisbane, Sydney, and Melbourne) utilizing insights into multidecadal climate variability. It is demonstrated that IFD relationships may under-or over-estimate the design rainfall depending on the length and time period spanned by the rainfall data used to develop the IFD information. It is recommended that regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall be explicitly considered and appropriately treated in the ongoing revisions of the Engineers Australia guide to estimating and utilizing IFD information, Australian Rainfall and Runoff (ARR), and that clear guidance needs to be provided on how to deal with the issue of regime shifts in extreme events (irrespective of whether this is due to natural or anthropogenic climate change). The findings of our study also have important implications for other regions of the world that exhibit considerable hydroclimatic variability and where IFD information is based on relatively short data sets. © 2015 Author(s).
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78372
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Environmental and Climate Change Research Group, School of Environmental and Life Sciences, University of Newcastle, Callaghan, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Verdon-Kidd D,C,, Kiem A,et al. Regime shifts in annual maximum rainfall across Australia-implications for intensity-frequency-duration (IFD) relationships[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(12)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Verdon-Kidd D]'s Articles
[C]'s Articles
[, Kiem A]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Verdon-Kidd D]'s Articles
[C]'s Articles
[, Kiem A]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Verdon-Kidd D]‘s Articles
[C]‘s Articles
[, Kiem A]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.