DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3517-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84939234527
论文题名: Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe
作者: Benito G ; , Brázdil R ; , Herget J ; , Machado M ; J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 8 起始页码: 3517
结束页码: 3539
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Hydrology
; Rivers
; Climate variability
; Discharge calculation
; Engineering design
; Engineering problems
; Historical hydrologies
; Hydrological characteristics
; Hydrological data
; Multiproxy approach
; Floods
; climate variation
; discharge
; documentary source
; extreme event
; flooding
; gauge
; historical perspective
; hydraulics
; hydrological modeling
; long-term change
; nineteenth century
; paleoflood
; paleohydrology
; quantitative analysis
; reconstruction
; Czech Republic
; England
; France
; Gardon Basin
; Italy
; Languedoc-Roussillon
; Ouse River
; Po River
; United Kingdom
; Vltava River
英文摘要: In recent decades, the quantification of flood hydrological characteristics (peak discharge, hydrograph shape, and runoff volume) from documentary evidence has gained scientific recognition as a method to lengthen flood records of rare and extreme events. This paper describes the methodological evolution of quantitative historical hydrology under the influence of developments in hydraulics and statistics. In the 19th century, discharge calculations based on flood marks were the only source of hydrological data for engineering design, but were later left aside in favour of systematic gauge records and conventional hydrological procedures. In the last two decades, there has been growing scientific and public interest in understanding long-term patterns of rare floods, in maintaining the flood heritage and memory of extremes, and developing methods for deterministic and statistical application to different scientific and engineering problems. A compilation of 46 case studies across Europe with reconstructed discharges demonstrates that (1) in most cases present flood magnitudes are not unusual within the context of the last millennium, although recent floods may exceed past floods in some temperate European rivers (e.g. the Vltava and Po rivers); (2) the frequency of extreme floods has decreased since the 1950s, although some rivers (e.g. the Gardon and Ouse rivers) show a reactivation of rare events over the last two decades. There is a great potential for gaining understanding of individual extreme events based on a combined multiproxy approach (palaeoflood and documentary records) providing high-resolution time flood series and their environmental and climatic changes; and for developing non-systematic and non-stationary statistical models based on relations of past floods with external and internal covariates under natural low-frequency climate variability. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78449
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Museo Nacional de Ciencias Naturales, CSIC, Serrano 115 bis, Madrid, Spain; Institute of Geography, Masaryk University, Kotlářská 2, Brno, Czech Republic; Global Change Research Centre, Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Bělidla 4a, Brno, Czech Republic; Department of Geography, University of Bonn, Meckenheimer Allee 166, Bonn, Germany
Recommended Citation:
Benito G,, Brázdil R,, Herget J,et al. Quantitative historical hydrology in Europe[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(8)