DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3217-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84938080197
论文题名: Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland - Studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data
作者: Olsson T ; , Jakkila J ; , Veijalainen N ; , Backman L ; , Kaurola J ; , Vehviläinen B
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 7 起始页码: 3217
结束页码: 3238
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Catchments
; Climate models
; Hydrology
; Runoff
; Climate change impact
; Climate change projections
; Climate fluctuations
; Hydrological modeling
; Meteorological variables
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Seasonal distributions
; Climate change
; catchment
; climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; data set
; discharge
; hydrological modeling
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; seasonal variation
; temperature effect
; temperature gradient
; Finland
英文摘要: Assessment of climate change impacts on climate and hydrology on catchment scale requires reliable information about the average values and climate fluctuations of the past, present and future. Regional climate models (RCMs) used in impact studies often produce biased time series of meteorological variables. In this study bias correction (BC) of RCM temperature and precipitation for Finland is carried out using different versions of the distribution based scaling (DBS) method. The DBS-adjusted RCM data are used as input of a hydrological model to simulate changes in discharges of four study catchments in different parts of Finland. The annual mean discharges and seasonal variation simulated with the DBS-adjusted temperature and precipitation data are sufficiently close to observed discharges in the control period 1961-2000 and produce more realistic projections for mean annual and seasonal changes in discharges than the uncorrected RCM data. Furthermore, with most scenarios the DBS method used preserves the temperature and precipitation trends of the uncorrected RCM data during 1961-2100. However, if the biases in the mean or the standard deviation of the uncorrected temperatures are large, significant biases after DBS adjustment may remain or temperature trends may change, increasing the uncertainty of climate change projections. The DBS method influences especially the projected seasonal changes in discharges and the use of uncorrected data can produce unrealistic seasonal discharges and changes. The projected changes in annual mean discharges are moderate or small, but seasonal distribution of discharges will change significantly. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78465
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Finnish Meteorological Institute, Erik Palménin aukio 1, Helsinki, Finland; Freshwater Centre, Finnish Environment Institute, Mechelininkatu 34a, P.O. Box 140, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Olsson T,, Jakkila J,, Veijalainen N,et al. Impacts of climate change on temperature, precipitation and hydrology in Finland - Studies using bias corrected Regional Climate Model data[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(7)