DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-3239-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84938151845
论文题名: Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: The role of model parameter uncertainty
作者: Chaney N ; W ; , Herman J ; D ; , Reed P ; M ; , Wood E ; F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 7 起始页码: 3239
结束页码: 3251
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Balloons
; Climate models
; Drought
; Floods
; Forecasting
; Remote sensing
; Surface measurement
; Uncertainty analysis
; Weather forecasting
; Comprehensive evaluation
; Hydrologic monitoring
; Numerical weather forecasting
; Parameter identifiability
; Parameter uncertainty
; Parametric sensitivity
; Satellite remote sensing
; Variable infiltration capacities
; Parameter estimation
; climate forcing
; drought
; flood
; global climate
; hydrological modeling
; infiltration
; land surface
; parallel computing
; parameterization
; runoff
; timescale
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: Land surface modeling, in conjunction with numerical weather forecasting and satellite remote sensing, is playing an increasing role in global monitoring and prediction of extreme hydrologic events (i.e., floods and droughts). However, uncertainties in the meteorological forcings, model structure, and parameter identifiability limit the reliability of model predictions. This study focuses on the latter by assessing two potential weaknesses that emerge due to limitations in our global runoff observations: (1) the limits of identifying model parameters at coarser timescales than those at which the extreme events occur, and (2) the negative impacts of not properly accounting for model parameter equifinality in the predictions of extreme events. To address these challenges, petascale parallel computing is used to perform the first global-scale, 10 000 member ensemble-based evaluation of plausible model parameters using the VIC (Variable Infiltration Capacity) land surface model, aiming to characterize the impact of parameter identifiability on the uncertainty in flood and drought predictions. Additionally, VIC's global-scale parametric sensitivities are assessed at the annual, monthly, and daily timescales to determine whether coarse-timescale observations can properly constrain extreme events. Global and climate type results indicate that parameter uncertainty remains an important concern for predicting extreme events even after applying monthly and annual constraints to the ensemble, suggesting a need for improved prior distributions of the model parameters as well as improved observations. This study contributes a comprehensive evaluation of land surface modeling for global flood and drought monitoring and suggests paths forward to overcome the challenges posed by parameter uncertainty. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78467
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Chaney N,W,, Herman J,et al. Flood and drought hydrologic monitoring: The role of model parameter uncertainty[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(7)