DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2981-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84935079122
论文题名: Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction
作者: Rodríguez-Rincón J ; P ; , Pedrozo-Acuña A ; , Breña-Naranjo J ; A
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 7 起始页码: 2981
结束页码: 2998
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Errors
; Flood control
; Floods
; Fluid dynamics
; Forecasting
; Gages
; Hydrodynamics
; Hydrology
; Rain
; Rain gages
; Runoff
; Satellite imagery
; Uncertainty analysis
; Distributed hydrological model
; Distributed rainfall-runoff models
; Ensemble techniques
; Hydrological modeling
; Meteorological modeling
; Numerical weather prediction models
; Uncertainty assessment
; Uncertainty evaluation
; Weather forecasting
; catchment
; discharge
; extreme event
; flooding
; guideline
; hindcasting
; hydrodynamics
; hydrograph
; hydrometeorology
; rainfall-runoff modeling
; raingauge
; satellite imagery
; spatiotemporal analysis
; uncertainty analysis
; weather forecasting
; Federal District [Mexico]
; Mexico City
; Mexico [North America]
英文摘要: This investigation aims to study the propagation of meteorological uncertainty within a cascade modelling approach to flood prediction. The methodology was comprised of a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model, a distributed rainfall-runoff model and a 2-D hydrodynamic model. The uncertainty evaluation was carried out at the meteorological and hydrological levels of the model chain, which enabled the investigation of how errors that originated in the rainfall prediction interact at a catchment level and propagate to an estimated inundation area and depth. For this, a hindcast scenario is utilised removing non-behavioural ensemble members at each stage, based on the fit with observed data. At the hydrodynamic level, an uncertainty assessment was not incorporated; instead, the model was setup following guidelines for the best possible representation of the case study. The selected extreme event corresponds to a flood that took place in the southeast of Mexico during November 2009, for which field data (e.g. rain gauges; discharge) and satellite imagery were available. Uncertainty in the meteorological model was estimated by means of a multi-physics ensemble technique, which is designed to represent errors from our limited knowledge of the processes generating precipitation. In the hydrological model, a multi-response validation was implemented through the definition of six sets of plausible parameters from past flood events. Precipitation fields from the meteorological model were employed as input in a distributed hydrological model, and resulting flood hydrographs were used as forcing conditions in the 2-D hydrodynamic model. The evolution of skill within the model cascade shows a complex aggregation of errors between models, suggesting that in valley-filling events hydro-meteorological uncertainty has a larger effect on inundation depths than that observed in estimated flood inundation extents. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78478
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Autonomous University of Mexico, Institute of Engineering, Mexico City, D.F., Mexico
Recommended Citation:
Rodríguez-Rincón J,P,, Pedrozo-Acuña A,et al. Propagation of hydro-meteorological uncertainty in a model cascade framework to inundation prediction[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(7)