DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-1905-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928805500
论文题名: Why is the Arkavathy River drying? A multiple-hypothesis approach in a data-scarce region
作者: Srinivasan V ; , Thompson S ; , Madhyastha K ; , Penny G ; , Jeremiah K ; , Lele S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 4 起始页码: 1905
结束页码: 1917
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Forecasting
; Groundwater
; Reservoirs (water)
; Runoff
; Eucalyptus plantations
; Groundwater extraction
; Groundwater pumping
; Hydrologic monitoring
; Hydrological changes
; Multiple hypothesis
; Relative contribution
; Water availability
; Climate change
; anthropogenic effect
; basin management
; catchment
; data set
; decision analysis
; evergreen tree
; fragmentation
; hydrological cycle
; policy making
; prediction
; rainfall
; research work
; water availability
; water planning
; Arkavathy River
; India
; Karnataka
; Eucalyptus
英文摘要: Water planning decisions are only as good as our ability to explain historical trends and make reasonable predictions of future water availability. But predicting water availability can be a challenge in rapidly growing regions, where human modifications of land and waterscapes are changing the hydrologic system. Yet, many regions of the world lack the long-term hydrologic monitoring records needed to understand past changes and predict future trends. We investigated this "predictions under change" problem in the data-scarce Thippagondanahalli (TG Halli) catchment of the Arkavathy sub-basin in southern India. Inflows into TG Halli reservoir have declined sharply since the 1970s. The causes of the drying are poorly understood, resulting in misdirected or counter-productive management responses. Five plausible hypotheses that could explain the decline were tested using data from field surveys and secondary sources: (1) changes in rainfall amount, seasonality and intensity; (2) increases in temperature; (3) groundwater extraction; (4) expansion of eucalyptus plantations; and (5) fragmentation of the river channel. Our results suggest that groundwater pumping, expansion of eucalyptus plantations and, to a lesser extent, channel fragmentation are much more likely to have caused the decline in surface flows in the TG Halli catchment than changing climate. The multiple-hypothesis approach presents a systematic way to quantify the relative contributions of proximate anthropogenic and climate drivers to hydrological change. The approach not only makes a meaningful contribution to the policy debate but also helps prioritize and design future research. The approach is a first step to conducting use-inspired socio-hydrologic research in a watershed. © Author(s) 2015. CC Attribution 3.0 License. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78543
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, Royal Enclave Sriramapura, Jakkur Post, Bangalore, Karnataka, India; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Srinivasan V,, Thompson S,, Madhyastha K,et al. Why is the Arkavathy River drying? A multiple-hypothesis approach in a data-scarce region[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(4)