DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-1695-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84928036637
论文题名: Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa
作者: Trambauer P ; , Werner M ; , Winsemius H ; C ; , Maskey S ; , Dutra E ; , Uhlenbrook S
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 4 起始页码: 1695
结束页码: 1711
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric pressure
; Climatology
; Drought
; Forecasting
; Hydrology
; Losses
; Reservoirs (water)
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Water resources
; Watersheds
; Distributed hydrological model
; Global atmospheric models
; Hydrological droughts
; Hydrological prediction
; Numerical weather prediction models
; Operational guidance
; Southern oscillation
; Streamflow prediction
; Weather forecasting
; drought
; economic impact
; ensemble forecasting
; humanitarian aid
; hydrological modeling
; seasonal variation
; streamflow
; water use
; Limpopo Basin
英文摘要: Ensemble hydrological predictions are normally obtained by forcing hydrological models with ensembles of atmospheric forecasts produced by numerical weather prediction models. To be of practical value to water users, such forecasts should not only be sufficiently skilful, they should also provide information that is relevant to the decisions end users make. The semi-arid Limpopo Basin in southern Africa has experienced severe droughts in the past, resulting in crop failure, economic losses and the need for humanitarian aid. In this paper we address the seasonal prediction of hydrological drought in the Limpopo River basin by testing three proposed forecasting systems (FS) that can provide operational guidance to reservoir operators and water managers at the seasonal timescale. All three FS include a distributed hydrological model of the basin, which is forced with either (i) a global atmospheric model forecast (ECMWF seasonal forecast system - S4), (ii) the commonly applied ensemble streamflow prediction approach (ESP) using resampled historical data, or (iii) a conditional ESP approach (ESPcond) that is conditional on the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) signal. We determine the skill of the three systems in predicting streamflow and commonly used drought indices. We also assess the skill in predicting indicators that are meaningful to local end users in the basin. FS-S4 shows moderate skill for all lead times (3, 4, and 5 months) and aggregation periods. FS-ESP also performs better than climatology for the shorter lead times, but with lower skill than FS-S4. FS-ESPcond shows intermediate skill compared to the other two FS, though its skill is shown to be more robust. The skill of FS-ESP and FS-ESPcond is found to decrease rapidly with increasing lead time when compared to FS-S4. The results show that both FS-S4 and FS-ESPcond have good potential for seasonal hydrological drought forecasting in the Limpopo River basin, which is encouraging in the context of providing better operational guidance to water users. © Author(s) 2015. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78555
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: UNESCO-IHE, Department of Water Science and Engineering, P.O. Box 3015, DA Delft, Netherlands; Deltares, P.O. Box 177, MH Delft, Netherlands; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; Delft University of Technology, Water Resources Section, P.O. Box 5048, GA Delft, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Trambauer P,, Werner M,, Winsemius H,et al. Hydrological drought forecasting and skill assessment for the Limpopo River basin, southern Africa[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(4)