DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-1469-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84925583864
论文题名: Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: The Kavango River basin case study
作者: Bauer-Gottwein P ; , Jensen I ; H ; , Guzinski R ; , Bredtoft G ; K ; T ; , Hansen S ; , Michailovsky C ; I
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 3 起始页码: 1469
结束页码: 1485
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Benchmarking
; Climate models
; Computer software
; Forecasting
; Open source software
; Open systems
; Rivers
; Software engineering
; Watersheds
; Data assimilation techniques
; Distributed modeling
; Hydrologic forecasting
; Integrated Water Resources Management
; Performance statistics
; Probabilistic forecasting
; Probabilistic forecasts
; Water resources management
; Water resources
; climate forcing
; data assimilation
; forecasting method
; gauge
; integrated approach
; probability
; river basin
; river discharge
; software
; water management
; Okavango Basin
英文摘要: Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management in Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0-7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators and the performance is compared to persistence and climatology benchmarks. The forecasting system delivers useful forecasts for the Kavango River, which are reliable and sharp. Results indicate that the value of the forecasts is greatest for intermediate lead times between 4 and 7 days. © 2015 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78569
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark; DHI GRAS, Hørsholm, Denmark; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bauer-Gottwein P,, Jensen I,H,et al. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: The Kavango River basin case study[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(3)