DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-711-2015
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84922495757
论文题名: How does bias correction of regional climate model precipitation affect modelled runoff?
作者: Teng J ; , Potter N ; J ; , Chiew F ; H ; S ; , Zhang L ; , Wang B ; , Vaze J ; , Evans J ; P
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2015
卷: 19, 期: 2 起始页码: 711
结束页码: 728
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate change
; Errors
; Mapping
; Runoff
; Weather forecasting
; Bias-correction methods
; Corrected precipitation
; Daily precipitations
; Precipitation sequence
; Regional climate modeling
; Regional climate models
; Southeast australia
; Weather research and forecasting models
; Climate models
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; error correction
; flow modeling
; hydrological modeling
; mapping
; precipitation (climatology)
; regional climate
; runoff
; Australia
英文摘要: Many studies bias correct daily precipitation from climate models to match the observed precipitation statistics, and the bias corrected data are then used for various modelling applications. This paper presents a review of recent methods used to bias correct precipitation from regional climate models (RCMs). The paper then assesses four bias correction methods applied to the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model simulated precipitation, and the follow-on impact on modelled runoff for eight catchments in southeast Australia. Overall, the best results are produced by either quantile mapping or a newly proposed two-state gamma distribution mapping method. However, the differences between the methods are small in the modelling experiments here (and as reported in the literature), mainly due to the substantial corrections required and inconsistent errors over time (non-stationarity). The errors in bias corrected precipitation are typically amplified in modelled runoff. The tested methods cannot overcome limitations of the RCM in simulating precipitation sequence, which affects runoff generation. Results further show that whereas bias correction does not seem to alter change signals in precipitation means, it can introduce additional uncertainty to change signals in high precipitation amounts and, consequently, in runoff. Future climate change impact studies need to take this into account when deciding whether to use raw or bias corrected RCM results. Nevertheless, RCMs will continue to improve and will become increasingly useful for hydrological applications as the bias in RCM simulations reduces. © 2015 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78614
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: CSIRO Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australia; Climate Change Research Centre, ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Recommended Citation:
Teng J,, Potter N,J,et al. How does bias correction of regional climate model precipitation affect modelled runoff?[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2015-01-01,19(2)