DOI: 10.1002/2014GL060095
论文题名: Potential for extreme loss in high-latitude Earth surface processes due to climate change
作者: Aalto J. ; Venäläinen A. ; Heikkinen R.K. ; Luoto M.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-10600
EISSN: 1944-10331
出版年: 2014
卷: 41, 期: 11 起始页码: 3914
结束页码: 3924
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate change
; climate scenario
; Earth surface processes
; ensemble modeling
; high-latitude environments
; periglacial geomorphology
Scopus关键词: Ecology
; Submersible pumps
; Climate scenarios
; Earth surface process
; Ensemble modeling
; high-latitude environments
; Periglacial geomorphology
; Climate change
; albedo
; biogeochemical cycle
; climate change
; climate effect
; ecosystem dynamics
; extreme event
; heat flux
; land surface
; latitude
; weather forecasting
; Fennoscandia
英文摘要: Climatically driven Earth surface processes (ESPs) govern landscape and ecosystem dynamics in high-latitude regions. However, climate change is expected to alter ESP activity at yet uncertain rate and amplitude. We examined the sensitivity of key ESPs (cryoturbation, solifluction, nivation, and palsa mires) to changing climate by modeling their distribution in regard to climate, local topography, and soil variables in northern Fennoscandia. The distributions of ESPs were then forecasted under two future time periods, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, using ensemble modeling and three emission scenarios. Increase of 2°C in current temperature conditions caused an almost complete loss of ESPs, highlighting the extreme climatic sensitivity of high-latitude geomorphic processes. Forecasts based on three scenarios suggest a disappearance of suitable climate for studied ESPs by the end of this century. This could initiate multiple opposing feedback between land surface and atmosphere through changes in albedo, heat fluxes, and biogeochemical cycles. © 2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84901732438&doi=10.1002%2f2014GL060095&partnerID=40&md5=1979c8b5b44d82f215a098c67b446c9c
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/7864
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应
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作者单位: Department of Geosciences and Geography, University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland
Recommended Citation:
Aalto J.,Venäläinen A.,Heikkinen R.K.,et al. Potential for extreme loss in high-latitude Earth surface processes due to climate change[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2014-01-01,41(11).