globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3631-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84986592656
论文题名:
Drought in a human-modified world: Reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches
作者: Van Loon A; F; , Stahl K; , Di Baldassarre G; , Clark J; , Rangecroft S; , Wanders N; , Gleeson T; , Van Dijk A; I; J; M; , Tallaksen L; M; , Hannaford J; , Uijlenhoet R; , Teuling A; J; , Hannah D; M; , Sheffield J; , Svoboda M; , Verbeiren B; , Wagener T; , Van Lanen H; A; J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期:9
起始页码: 3631
结束页码: 3650
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Digital storage ; Soil moisture ; Water management ; Water resources ; Drought characteristics ; Human modification ; Hydrological droughts ; Land-surface process ; Management strategies ; Physical characteristics ; Reference condition ; Research questions ; Drought ; adaptive management ; Anthropocene ; anthropogenic effect ; drought ; exploitation ; flooding ; holistic approach ; land surface ; temperature anomaly ; water budget ; water management ; water resource
英文摘要: In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered normal or reference conditions) over time? Answering these questions requires exploration of qualitative and quantitative data as well as mixed modelling approaches. The challenges related to drought research and management in the Anthropocene are not unique to drought, but do require urgent attention. We give recommendations drawn from the fields of flood research, ecology, water management, and water resources studies. The framework presented here provides a holistic view on drought in the Anthropocene, which will help improve management strategies for mitigating the severity and reducing the impacts of droughts in future. © Author(s) 2016.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78738
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Water Science Research Group, School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Hydrology Department, Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany; Department of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden; Human Geography Research Group, School of Geography, Earth, and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, United Kingdom; Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Victoria, Victoria, Canada; Fenner School of Environment and Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; Hydrology and Quantitative Water Management group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska, Lincoln, NE, United States; Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Cabot Institute, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Van Loon A,F,, Stahl K,et al. Drought in a human-modified world: Reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(9)
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