globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3549-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84985931181
论文题名:
Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action
作者: De Perez E; C; , Van Den Hurk B; , Van Aalst M; K; , Amuron I; , Bamanya D; , Hauser T; , Jongma B; , Lopez A; , Mason S; , De Suarez J; M; , Pappenberger F; , Rueth A; , Stephens E; , Suarez P; , Wagemaker J; , Zsoter E
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期:9
起始页码: 3549
结束页码: 3560
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Disaster prevention ; Disasters ; Finance ; Flood control ; Floods ; Awareness systems ; Early warning ; Extreme events ; Financial resources ; Flood forecasting ; Pilot projects ; Probabilistic forecasts ; Scientific data ; Forecasting ; action plan ; disaster relief ; early warning system ; financial system ; flood forecasting ; humanitarian aid ; investment incentive ; landscape change ; magnitude ; probability ; project assessment ; risk assessment ; uncertainty analysis ; Uganda
英文摘要: Too often, credible scientific early warning information of increased disaster risk does not result in humanitarian action. With financial resources tilted heavily towards response after a disaster, disaster managers have limited incentive and ability to process complex scientific data, including uncertainties. These incentives are beginning to change, with the advent of several new forecast-based financing systems that provide funding based on a forecast of an extreme event. Given the changing landscape, here we demonstrate a method to select and use appropriate forecasts for specific humanitarian disaster prevention actions, even in a data-scarce location. This action-based forecasting methodology takes into account the parameters of each action, such as action lifetime, when verifying a forecast. Forecasts are linked with action based on an understanding of (1) the magnitude of previous flooding events and (2) the willingness to act "in vain" for specific actions. This is applied in the context of the Uganda Red Cross Society forecast-based financing pilot project, with forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). Using this method, we define the "danger level" of flooding, and we select the probabilistic forecast triggers that are appropriate for specific actions. Results from this methodology can be applied globally across hazards and fed into a financing system that ensures that automatic, pre-funded early action will be triggered by forecasts. © Author(s) 2016.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78747
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, Hague, Netherlands; Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, United States; Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, Netherlands; Uganda Red Cross Society, Kampala, Uganda; Uganda National Meteorological Authority, Kampala, Uganda; Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR), World Bank, Washington, DC, United States; Atmospheric Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom; Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, United Kingdom; German Red Cross, Berlin, Germany; School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Science, Technology, Engineering and Public Policy, University College London, London, United Kingdom; Floodtags, Hague, Netherlands

Recommended Citation:
De Perez E,C,, Van Den Hurk B,et al. Action-based flood forecasting for triggering humanitarian action[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(9)
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