DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3343-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84983550781
论文题名: Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China
作者: Liu X ; , Tang Q ; , Voisin N ; , Cui H
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 8 起始页码: 3343
结束页码: 3359
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Digital storage
; Hydroelectric power
; Renewable energy resources
; Reservoirs (water)
; Stream flow
; General circulation model
; Hydro-power development
; Hydrological condition
; Hydrological models
; Hydropower potential
; Renewable energy source
; Reservoir regulations
; Socioeconomic analysis
; Climate change
; climate change
; energy planning
; general circulation model
; hydroelectric power
; hydrological modeling
; renewable resource
; resource development
; socioeconomic status
; streamflow
; water storage
; China
; Hubei
; Sichuan
英文摘要: Hydropower is an important renewable energy source in China, but it is sensitive to climate change, because the changing climate may alter hydrological conditions (e.g., river flow and reservoir storage). Future changes and associated uncertainties in China's gross hydropower potential (GHP) and developed hydropower potential (DHP) are projected using simulations from eight global hydrological models (GHMs), including a large-scale reservoir regulation model, forced by five general circulation models (GCMs) with climate data under two representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Results show that the estimation of the present GHP of China is comparable to other studies; overall, the annual GHP is projected to change by ĝ'1.7 to 2ĝ€% in the near future (2020-2050) and increase by 3 to 6ĝ€% in the late 21st century (2070-2099). The annual DHP is projected to change by ĝ'2.2 to ĝ'5.4ĝ€% (0.7-1.7ĝ€% of the total installed hydropower capacity (IHC)) and ĝ'1.3 to ĝ'4ĝ€% (0.4–1.3ĝ€% of total IHC) for 2020-2050 and 2070-2099, respectively. Regional variations emerge: GHP will increase in northern China but decrease in southern China - mostly in south central China and eastern China - where numerous reservoirs and large IHCs currently are located. The area with the highest GHP in southwest China will have more GHP, while DHP will reduce in the regions with high IHC (e.g., Sichuan and Hubei) in the future. The largest decrease in DHP (in %) will occur in autumn or winter, when streamflow is relatively low and water use is competitive. Large ranges in hydropower estimates across GHMs and GCMs highlight the necessity of using multimodel assessments under climate change conditions. This study prompts the consideration of climate change in planning for hydropower development and operations in China, to be further combined with a socioeconomic analysis for strategic expansion. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78758
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 1100 N Dexter Ave, Seattle, WA, United States; Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 11A Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China
Recommended Citation:
Liu X,, Tang Q,, Voisin N,et al. Projected impacts of climate change on hydropower potential in China[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(8)