globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3109-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84982719997
论文题名:
Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: A risk-based decision-making game
作者: Arnal L; , Ramos M; -H; , De Perez E; C; , Cloke H; L; , Stephens E; , Wetterhall F; , Van Andel S; J; , Pappenberger F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期:8
起始页码: 3109
结束页码: 3128
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making ; Flood control ; Floods ; Forecasting ; Hydroelectric power ; Decision making process ; Deterministic forecasts ; Forecast uncertainty ; Operational forecasters ; Probabilistic forecasts ; Probability of occurrence ; Risk based decision making ; Willingness to pay ; Weather forecasting ; academic research ; decision making ; flood forecasting ; hydroelectric power ; hydrometeorology ; performance assessment ; probability ; risk assessment ; temporal analysis ; uncertainty analysis ; willingness to pay
英文摘要: Probabilistic hydro-meteorological forecasts have over the last decades been used more frequently to communicate forecast uncertainty. This uncertainty is twofold, as it constitutes both an added value and a challenge for the forecaster and the user of the forecasts. Many authors have demonstrated the added (economic) value of probabilistic over deterministic forecasts across the water sector (e.g. flood protection, hydroelectric power management and navigation). However, the richness of the information is also a source of challenges for operational uses, due partially to the difficulty in transforming the probability of occurrence of an event into a binary decision. This paper presents the results of a risk-based decision-making game on the topic of flood protection mitigation, called "How much are you prepared to pay for a forecast?". The game was played at several workshops in 2015, which were attended by operational forecasters and academics working in the field of hydro-meteorology. The aim of this game was to better understand the role of probabilistic forecasts in decision-making processes and their perceived value by decision-makers. Based on the participants' willingness-to-pay for a forecast, the results of the game show that the value (or the usefulness) of a forecast depends on several factors, including the way users perceive the quality of their forecasts and link it to the perception of their own performances as decision-makers. © Author(s) 2016.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78771
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; ECMWF, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Shinfield Park, Reading, United Kingdom; IRSTEA, Catchment Hydrology Research Group, UR HBAN, Antony, France; Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, Netherlands; Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Palisades, NY, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands; School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom

Recommended Citation:
Arnal L,, Ramos M,-H,et al. Willingness-to-pay for a probabilistic flood forecast: A risk-based decision-making game[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(8)
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