DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-3027-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84980016035
论文题名: Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change
作者: Phi Hoang L ; , Lauri H ; , Kummu M ; , Koponen J ; , Vliet M ; T ; H ; V ; , Supit I ; , Leemans R ; , Kabat P ; , Ludwig F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 3027
结束页码: 3041
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Floods
; Flow of water
; Rivers
; Stream flow
; Water management
; Climate change adaptation
; Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
; Economic development
; Hydrological changes
; Hydrological cycles
; Hydrological extremes
; Hydrological impact assessments
; Hydrological impacts
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate modeling
; environmental impact assessment
; extreme event
; flooding
; hydrological change
; hydrological cycle
; hydrological regime
; peak discharge
; river discharge
; river flow
; salinization
; water availability
; Mekong River
英文摘要: Climate change poses critical threats to waterrelated safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals from earlier Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 (CMIP3)-based assessments, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the CMIP5 climate projections. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high-flow and low-flow conditions). In general, the Mekong's hydrological cycle intensifies under future climate change. The scenario's ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16 %, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional changes. The scenario's ensemble, however, shows reduced uncertainties in climate projection and hydrological impacts compared to earlier CMIP3-based assessments. We further found that extremely high-flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risks in the basin. Climatechange-induced hydrological changes will have important implications for safety, economic development, and ecosystem dynamics and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and water management. © 2016 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78776
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Water Systems and Global Change Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, Netherlands; EIA Finland Ltd., Sinimaentie 10B, Espoo, Finland; Water and Development Research Group, Aalto University, P.O. Box 15200, Aalto, Finland; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, Wageningen, Netherlands; International Institute for Applied System Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Phi Hoang L,, Lauri H,, Kummu M,et al. Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(7)