DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2841-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978759025
论文题名: Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use-land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012
作者: Casse C ; , Gosset M ; , Vischel T ; , Quantin G ; , Tanimoun B ; A
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 2841
结束页码: 2859
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Land use
; Climatic periods
; Hydrological changes
; Hydrological modeling
; Land use/ land covers
; Long term records
; Partial recovery
; Rainfall variability
; Surface conditions
; Rain
; backarc basin
; drainage
; drought
; flood
; hydrological modeling
; land cover
; land use
; rainfall
; river basin
; river discharge
; runoff
; Niamey [Niger]
; Niger River
; Niger [West Africa]
; Sahel [Sub-Saharan Africa]
英文摘要: Since 1950, the Niger River basin has gone through three main climatic periods: a wet period (1950-1960), an extended drought (1970-1980) and since 1990 a recent partial recovery of annual rainfall. Hydrological changes co-occur with these rainfall fluctuations. In most of the basin, the rainfall deficit caused an enhanced discharge deficit, but in the Sahelian region the runoff increased despite the rainfall deficit. Since 2000 the Sahelian part of the Niger has been hit by an increase of flood hazards during the so-called red flood period. In Niamey city, the highest river levels and the longest flooded period ever recorded occurred in 2003, 2010, 2012 and 2013, with heavy casualties and property damage. The reasons for these changes, and the relative role of climate versus land use-land cover (LULC) changes are still debated and are investigated in this paper. The evolution of the Niger red flood in Niamey from 1950 to 2012 is analysed based on long-term records of rainfall (three data sets based on in situ and/or satellite data) and discharge, and a hydrological model. The model is first run with the present LULC conditions in order to analyse solely the effect of rainfall variability. The impact of LULC and drainage area modification is investigated in a second step. The simulations based on the current surface conditions are able to reproduce the observed trend in the red flood occurrence and intensity since the 1980s. This has been verified with three independent rainfall data sets and implies that rainfall variability is the main driver for the red flood intensification observed over the last 30 years. The simulation results since 1953 have revealed that LULC and drainage area changes need to be invoked to explain the changes over a 60-year period. © 2016 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78788
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Géoscience Environnement Toulouse, UMR5563 CNRS, IRD, Université Toulouse III, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, Toulouse, France; Laboratoire des Transferts en Hydrologie et Environnement, UMR5564, CNRS, IRD, Université Grenoble i, France; Autorité du Bassin du Niger (ABN), Niamey, Niger
Recommended Citation:
Casse C,, Gosset M,, Vischel T,et al. Model-based study of the role of rainfall and land use-land cover in the changes in the occurrence and intensity of Niger red floods in Niamey between 1953 and 2012[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(7)