DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2779-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978388857
论文题名: Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors
作者: Blauhut V ; , Stahl K ; , Stagge J ; H ; , Tallaksen L ; M ; , Stefano L ; D ; , Vogt J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 2779
结束页码: 2800
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Economics
; Forecasting
; Hazards
; Information use
; Land use
; Risk assessment
; Risk management
; Risk perception
; Water resources
; Accumulation periods
; Environmental systems
; Hybrid approach
; Logistic regressions
; Probabilistic impact
; Statistical modelling
; Vulnerability assessments
; Vulnerability factors
; Drought
; drought
; estimation method
; hazard assessment
; land use
; natural hazard
; vulnerability
; water resource
; Europe
英文摘要: Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, meant as the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan-European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work tests the capability of commonly applied drought indices and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and combines information on past drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This hybrid approach bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact prediction in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector-and macro-region-specific sensitivities of drought indices, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) for a 12-month accumulation period as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictors, with information about land use and water resources being the best vulnerability-based predictors. The application of the hybrid approach revealed strong regional and sector-specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of the best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer accumulation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, appropriateness of drought indices selection for specific applications, and drought risk assessment. © 2016 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78792
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Hydrology Dept., Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, University of Freiburg, Freiburg, Germany; Department of Geosciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Department of Geodynamics, Complutense University of Madrid, Madrid, Spain; Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, JRC, Ispra, Italy
Recommended Citation:
Blauhut V,, Stahl K,, Stagge J,et al. Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(7)