DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2705-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978378775
论文题名: Investigation of hydrological time series using copulas for detecting catchment characteristics and anthropogenic impacts
作者: Sugimoto T ; , Bárdossy A ; , Pegram G ; G ; S ; , Cullmann J
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 2705
结束页码: 2720
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Distribution functions
; Hydrology
; Runoff
; Statistical mechanics
; Stochastic systems
; Time series analysis
; Anthropogenic influence
; Catchment characteristics
; Dependence structures
; Global climate changes
; Hydrological modeling
; Hydrological time-series
; Precipitation indices
; Rainfall-runoff events
; Catchments
; anthropogenic effect
; catchment
; climate change
; detection method
; discharge
; hydrological modeling
; hydrological regime
; multivariate analysis
; numerical model
; site investigation
; time series analysis
; Germany
; Neckar Basin
; Rhine River
英文摘要: Global climate change can have impacts on characteristics of rainfall-runoff events and subsequently on the hydrological regime. Meanwhile, the catchment itself changes due to anthropogenic influences. However, it is not easy to prove the link between the hydrology and the forcings. In this context, it might be meaningful to detect the temporal changes of catchments independent from climate change by investigating existing long-term discharge records. For this purpose, a new stochastic system based on copulas for time series analysis is introduced in this study. A statistical tool like copula has the advantage to scrutinize the dependence structure of the data and, thus, can be used to attribute the catchment behavior by focusing on the following aspects of the statistics defined in the copula domain: (1) copula asymmetry, which can capture the nonsymmetric property of discharge data, differs from one catchment to another due to the intrinsic nature of both runoff and catchment; and (2) copula distances can assist in identifying catchment change by revealing the variability and interdependency of dependence structures. These measures were calculated for 100 years of daily discharges for the Rhine River and these analyses detected epochs of change in the flow sequences. In a follow-up study, we compared the results of copula asymmetry and copula distance applied to two flow models: (i) antecedent precipitation index (API) and (ii) simulated discharge time series generated by a hydrological model. The results of copula-based analysis of hydrological time series seem to support the assumption that the Neckar catchment had started to change around 1976 and stayed unusual until 1990. © 2016 Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78797
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute for Modelling Hydraulic and Environmental Systems, University of Stuttgart, Stuttgart, Germany; Civil Engineering Program, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa; Water and Climate Department, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Sugimoto T,, Bárdossy A,, Pegram G,et al. Investigation of hydrological time series using copulas for detecting catchment characteristics and anthropogenic impacts[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(7)