DOI: 10.5194/hess-20-2611-2016
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84978162106
论文题名: Machine learning methods for empirical streamflow simulation: A comparison of model accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty in seasonal watersheds
作者: Shortridge J ; E ; , Guikema S ; D ; , Zaitchik B ; F
刊名: Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
ISSN: 10275606
出版年: 2016
卷: 20, 期: 7 起始页码: 2611
结束页码: 2628
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Artificial intelligence
; Decision trees
; Learning systems
; Neural networks
; Regression analysis
; Splines
; Stream flow
; Generalized additive model
; Interpretation of models
; Machine learning approaches
; Machine learning methods
; Multivariate adaptive regression splines
; Non-parametric regression
; Predictive performance
; Streamflow simulations
; Climate models
; accuracy assessment
; climate conditions
; comparative study
; data interpretation
; empirical analysis
; hydrological modeling
; machine learning
; multivariate analysis
; prediction
; seasonality
; streamflow
; uncertainty analysis
; visualization
; watershed
; Ethiopian Highlands
英文摘要: In the past decade, machine learning methods for empirical rainfall–runoff modeling have seen extensive development and been proposed as a useful complement to physical hydrologic models, particularly in basins where data to support process-based models are limited. However, the majority of research has focused on a small number of methods, such as artificial neural networks, despite the development of multiple other approaches for non-parametric regression in recent years. Furthermore, this work has often evaluated model performance based on predictive accuracy alone, while not considering broader objectives, such as model interpretability and uncertainty, that are important if such methods are to be used for planning and management decisions. In this paper, we use multiple regression and machine learning approaches (including generalized additive models, multivariate adaptive regression splines, artificial neural networks, random forests, and M5 cubist models) to simulate monthly streamflow in five highly seasonal rivers in the highlands of Ethiopia and compare their performance in terms of predictive accuracy, error structure and bias, model interpretability, and uncertainty when faced with extreme climate conditions. While the relative predictive performance of models differed across basins, data-driven approaches were able to achieve reduced errors when compared to physical models developed for the region. Methods such as random forests and generalized additive models may have advantages in terms of visualization and interpretation of model structure, which can be useful in providing insights into physical watershed function. However, the uncertainty associated with model predictions under extreme climate conditions should be carefully evaluated, since certain models (especially generalized additive models and multivariate adaptive regression splines) become highly variable when faced with high temperatures. © Author(s) 2016. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/78803
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Engineering, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States; Department of Industrial and Operations Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, United States
Recommended Citation:
Shortridge J,E,, Guikema S,et al. Machine learning methods for empirical streamflow simulation: A comparison of model accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty in seasonal watersheds[J]. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016-01-01,20(7)